UniCredit's Commerzbank Tender Draws Just 1% Acceptance as Standalone Plan Gains Traction
Published on 07/06/2026 at 08:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The extended offer period has closed, and the verdict from Commerzbank’s free-float shareholders is emphatic: barely 1% of independent investors tendered their shares to UniCredit. The Italian lender’s bid to secure a controlling stake via a stock-for-stock exchange has been all but ignored, leaving its ambitions to consolidate Germany’s banking landscape on shaky ground.
The arithmetic was always stacked against the offer. UniCredit proposed 0.485 of its own shares for each Commerzbank share, a deal that at launch in early May valued the target at roughly €34.7 billion, or about €34.35 per share according to BaFin calculations. But by Friday's close, Commerzbank shares stood at €37.79 – a clear €3.44 above the exchange value. Selling in the open market yields a far better return than tendering, and investors voted with their sell orders.
Despite the weak take-up, UniCredit has amassed a sizeable position through other means. Including derivatives, the bank now controls around 42.5% of Commerzbank. Strip out those instruments, and direct ownership sits between 38% and 41%. That stake was built largely via market purchases and derivatives, not through the tender itself. For the Frankfurt-based bank’s management, that distinction matters: it proves the core argument against a full takeover retains its force.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Commerzbank’s board has been touting “Momentum 2030”, a strategic plan that targets a net return on equity of 21% by the end of the decade. More concretely, the bank expects net profit to hit at least €3.4 billion in 2026 and climb toward nearly €6 billion by 2030. These projections form the heart of the defence case: shareholders can expect more value from an independent Commerzbank than from a marriage with UniCredit at current terms. The German government, which holds roughly 12% via its financial stabilisation fund, remains firmly opposed to selling, while BaFin has been asked to scrutinise the provenance of tendered shares over possible misleading claims.
UniCredit’s financial firepower remains impressive – it posted a record quarterly net profit of €3.2 billion in the first three months of 2026, up 16% year-on-year, with revenue climbing 5% to €6.9 billion. Yet that strength has not translated into shareholder enthusiasm for the deal. The Commerzbank share has risen 34.48% over the past twelve months, buoyed by takeover speculation and improving earnings, and sits just 2.73% below its 52-week high of €38.85 reached on 19 June. Technical indicators suggest no urgent reversal: the stock trades above all key moving averages – the 50-day at €36.59, the 100-day at €34.82, and the 200-day at €34.24 – while the RSI of 57.4 signals neutral territory. The 30-day volatility measures 20.49%.
The battle for Commerzbank is not an isolated event. Across Europe, consolidation pressures are mounting; Crédit Agricole has lifted its stake in Italy’s Banco BPM to 29.3%, fuelling merger speculation in that market. The push for a deeper banking union and heightened competitive dynamics are driving cross-border moves, but the German case highlights how political and valuation hurdles can slow the process.
All eyes now turn to 8 July, when UniCredit will publish the final tender results. If independent participation remains at 1%, the message to both UniCredit and Berlin is clear: Commerzbank’s standalone story is resonating far more than the Italian offer. Until the market price closes the gap with UniCredit’s exchange value, the deal looks destined to stall, with a full takeover likely out of reach until at least 2027.
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