Wegovy Pill Wins EU Approval, Yet Novo Nordisk’s Rally Faces a Jittery Wait for FDA and Earnings
Published on 07/17/2026 at 08:06 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The European Commission has handed Novo Nordisk a clear edge in the race to dominate the oral weight?loss market, approving a once?daily tablet version of Wegovy across all 27 member states. Yet the Danish drugmaker’s stock — up roughly 18.5% over the past month — now finds itself in a zone that chart watchers call overbought, while a pivotal FDA decision on a separate candidate and a downbeat 2026 revenue forecast hang over the narrative.
The EU nod covers oral semaglutide at a 25 mg dose for adults with a body?mass index of 30 or above — or 27 with at least one weight?related comorbidity. It is the first GLP?1 medicine approved across the bloc as a pill rather than an injectable, adding the EU to a list of five markets that already includes the US, UK, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Brussels also cleared a ready?to?use injection pen for the higher 7.2 mg maintenance dose of Wegovy.
“This is more than a regulatory milestone,” said Mike Doustdar, Novo Nordisk’s CEO. A tablet, he argued, can be “the simpler and more acceptable entry point” into treatment. The company plans to roll out the pill across additional European countries in the second half of 2026.
The timing creates a headache for Eli Lilly. The US rival’s oral candidate, Foundayo, is still under review in Europe, even though the FDA gave it the green light back in April 2026. While Lilly waits, Novo Nordisk can deepen its European beachhead, drawing on data from the OASIS 4 sub?study that showed a 17% average weight loss versus 3% with placebo — and roughly a third of participants shedding 20% or more. In the US, where the tablet has been available since early 2026, prescriptions have already topped 3 million through June; more than 80% were written for patients new to GLP?1 therapy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Shareholders cheered the announcement, pushing the stock up 2.5% in initial trading, though the gain faded by the close. The shares finished Thursday at €45.01, leaving them 48.9% above a March 2026 low of €30.25 but still 26.1% short of the July 2025 high of €60.95. The 14?day relative strength index stands at 71.5 — technically overbought territory after a strong summer run.
That technical heat collides with fundamental headwinds. Management has guided for a 5% to 13% decline in adjusted 2026 revenue, driven by mandated price concessions in the US and the loss of semaglutide exclusivity in several international markets. A looming FDA decision on CagriSema — a combination therapy filed in December 2025 for weight reduction — adds to the suspense. The REDEFINE 4 head?to?head trial showed CagriSema delivering a 20.2% weight loss over 84 weeks, but Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide beat it at 23.6%, and CagriSema failed to demonstrate non?inferiority. The FDA is expected to rule in the fourth quarter of 2026.
The bull case rests on two concrete pillars: an aggressive buyback programme and the take?up of the oral Wegovy. Since February 4, 2026, Novo Nordisk has repurchased nearly 24 million B?shares under a scheme worth up to 15 billion Danish kroner. On the product side, the company says a Wegovy tablet pack is dispensed roughly every five seconds in the US, underscoring how the pill format is pulling in patients who avoid injections.
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Sceptics counter that the rally has run ahead of the facts. The RSI reading of 71.5 places the stock in a zone where pullbacks are common, and the shares currently trade 12.8% above their 50?day moving average and 11.2% above the 200?day line — gaps that historically have narrowed when earnings fail to confirm the momentum. A retreat toward the 50?day average near €39.93 or the 200?day average around €40.50 remains a plausible scenario if quarterly numbers disappoint or the FDA delivers a negative verdict on CagriSema.
The next quarter’s earnings report will be the first test of whether the prescription surge can offset the structural price erosion and a projected 5%?to?13% revenue contraction. Should the numbers come in at the weaker end of that range, the rally could run out of steam. If the FDA later follows up with a CagriSema rejection or a delayed timeline, the downside risk toward the 200?day average would grow. Conversely, a clean earnings beat combined with a positive FDA decision later in 2026 would give the stock room to close the gap to its 52?week high. For now, Novo Nordisk’s market narrative is a study in contrasts: a breakthrough pill that opens a new front in the obesity war, paired with a technical overhang and an unresolved regulatory question that no buyback can answer.
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