Xiaomi Bets €3.8 Billion on AI Robotics as Memory Chip Squeeze Forces Smartphone Retreat
Published on 07/03/2026 at 15:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Xiaomi is fighting a two-front war. On one side, an unprecedented surge in memory-chip costs has forced the company to slash its 2026 smartphone sales forecast by nearly half, from 170 million units to just 95 million. On the other, it is ploughing billions into artificial intelligence and robotics to reinvent itself as a deep-tech powerhouse. The market is watching both battles closely — and so far, it is not convinced.
The stock closed at €2.58 in Hong Kong on Thursday, having rallied 4.44% on the day after Xiaomi unveiled a fresh buyback programme. The company is authorised to repurchase up to HK$20 billion worth of its B-shares over the next 12 months, a mandate that runs until the 2027 annual general meeting. The move comes just days after the shares touched a multi-year low on 1 July. A previous buyback campaign bought back roughly 399.6 million shares for about HK$14.6 billion. Even with Thursday's bounce, the stock is down 42.54% year-to-date and 58.94% over the past twelve months, trading 60.36% below its 52-week peak of €6.51 reached last September.
The immediate catalyst for the smartphone target cut is a phenomenon the industry has dubbed "memflation." Skyrocketing demand for memory chips from AI data centres is eating into global production capacity. By 2026, the Commercial Times estimates that AI alone could consume nearly 20% of worldwide DRAM output. Gartner analyst Rajeev Rajput warns that DRAM prices could climb 125% by the end of next year, with NAND flash surging 234%. He does not expect meaningful relief before late 2027. The knock-on effect: Gartner sees average smartphone prices rising 13%, and the entry-level segment under $500 could vanish entirely by 2028.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Xiaomi?
Against that grim backdrop, Xiaomi is accelerating its long-term pivot. Last year the company invested roughly €3.8 billion in research and development, with a big chunk flowing into a network of 47 dedicated robotics firms. The commercial version of its humanoid robot "CyberOne" is expected to launch this year, and AI-related services are projected to generate nearly a third of total revenue before long. A new operating system, HyperOS 3.3, is slated for the flagship Xiaomi 17 and 17 Ultra models due in July or August. The software processes AI workloads directly on the device, forming the backbone of a connected ecosystem that will link smartphones, electric vehicles and robots.
The EV division is one area delivering consistent good news. Xiaomi has now shipped more than 30,000 vehicles for three consecutive months through June, bringing first-half deliveries to an estimated 180,000 units. That still leaves an ambitious stretch: the annual target of 550,000 vehicles would require average monthly deliveries of nearly 62,000 in the second half of the year.
Technically, the shares appear ripe for a bounce. The relative strength index sits at 34.1, flirting with oversold territory from which counter-moves often emerge. The stock has already recovered 10.21% from its 52-week low of €2.34 touched on 26 June. But the fundamentals remain fraught. While the buyback provides a short-term floor, the crucial test is whether Xiaomi can pass along exploding memory costs to customers without ceding market share — especially as the low-end smartphone segment faces structural erosion. If the summer product launches prove that HyperOS 3.3's on-device AI delivers a genuine user experience, it could buy the company breathing room for its robot ambitions. Until then, the divergence between strategic vision and market reality looks set to persist.
Ad
Xiaomi Stock: New Analysis - 3 July
Fresh Xiaomi information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
