Airbus Faces a Two-Speed Narrative: Record Profits, Buybacks, and a Delivery Clock That Won't Slow Down
Published on 08/07/2026 at 16:15 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
There is a peculiar tension at the heart of Airbus right now. The company is simultaneously telling investors a story of record profitability, a €5 billion share buyback, and an ambitious 2029 earnings target — while on the factory floor outside Madrid, roughly 3,000 workers are on strike over wages that have failed to keep pace with inflation. Both narratives are true, and both matter for anyone trying to gauge where the European aerospace giant goes from here.
The Numbers That Set the Tone
When Airbus published its half-year results at the end of July, the headline figures were difficult to ignore. Revenue climbed 12 percent to €33.176 billion in the first half of 2026, while operating profit (EBIT) surged 70 percent to €2.745 billion. Net income rose 47 percent to €2.243 billion. The operational engine behind those numbers: 351 commercial aircraft delivered, a 15 percent improvement over the same period last year. The company had entered the year with a delivery backlog and managed to claw it back during the second quarter.
That performance gave management the confidence to hold its full-year guidance steady: approximately 870 deliveries, adjusted EBIT of around €7.5 billion, and free cash flow before customer financing of roughly €4.5 billion. CEO Guillaume Faury was careful to define what "approximately" means in this context — a corridor of 850 to 890 aircraft, give or take 20 units in either direction. It is a subtle acknowledgment that the production chain remains a source of uncertainty rather than a precision instrument.
A Buyback and a Longer-Term Bet
Perhaps more striking than the quarterly numbers was the strategic announcement that came a day earlier. The board approved a €5 billion share repurchase program, spread over three years and subject to ongoing shareholder approval. At the same time, Airbus unveiled a new EBIT target range of €12 to €13 billion for 2029 — a wager on a decade of sustained demand for new aircraft, despite geopolitical friction and persistent supply chain constraints.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Airbus?
That demand has been showing up in tangible ways. Air China placed an order for 15 A350-900s and 40 A320neo aircraft for Shenzhen Airlines, valued at $12.4 billion, while Hainan Airlines committed to 40 A320neo jets worth $5.36 billion. At the Farnborough Airshow, Airbus also showcased its "Wing of Tomorrow" project — wingtips designed to fold, allowing larger wingspans to operate at existing airports. A three-year test program using an A321neo demonstrator will evaluate the technology.
The Delivery Math Gets Tight
July's delivery figures, however, underscore how much work remains. Airbus handed over 67 aircraft to 39 customers last month, bringing the year-to-date total to 418 jets across 82 customers. To hit the annual target of roughly 870 deliveries, the company now needs to average around 90 aircraft per month for the remainder of the year — a significant jump from July's pace.
The order book provides the bull case. With more than 9,000 aircraft on backlog, Airbus has over a decade of revenue visibility. The 204 gross orders booked in July alone suggest airlines remain willing to invest in new fleets despite macroeconomic concerns. The A320neo family, with 20,378 orders already on the books, stands to benefit most from the projected doubling of global passenger numbers to around 10 billion annually by 2045.
Boeing's troubles could provide additional tailwinds. The European aviation safety agency EASA has issued an emergency airworthiness directive for certain configurations of the Boeing 737-9, and the 777-8F freighter program is facing delays. That combination could shift additional market share toward Airbus's A320 and A350 families.
The Bear Case: Engines, Labor, and a Trimmed Forecast
The supply chain remains the most persistent headache. Industry-wide, more than 3,500 engines are waiting for spare parts, with overhaul turnaround times running between 180 and 240 days. Around 60 Airbus aircraft sat on the tarmac without engines in 2025, and those bottlenecks could extend well into 2026. Airbus has reached agreements with Pratt & Whitney on delivery volumes that support the current forecast, but commercial negotiations over the earlier reduction in engine quantities are still ongoing. On a positive note, the company no longer has any so-called "gliders" — aircraft waiting solely for missing engines.
Labor unrest adds another layer of complexity. In Getafe near Madrid, roughly 3,000 of the approximately 9,000 employees went on strike in July, organized by the independent aviation union SIPA. The disputes center on wages lagging inflation and stricter attendance controls. The UGT union has joined the action, while Comisiones Obreras has floated the possibility of an indefinite work stoppage after September 7.
Airbus has also trimmed its long-term outlook. The company now expects 42,060 global deliveries by 2045, one percent fewer than its previous projection, citing geopolitical tensions and shifting trade flows. Expected annual passenger traffic growth has been revised down to 3.9 percent from 4.1 percent. The cut is modest, but it reflects growing concerns about high oil prices and trade conflicts.
Airbus at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
On the freighter front, Airbus officially maintains its timeline for A350F certification and first delivery in 2027. However, customer Cathay Pacific reportedly anticipates a full year of delay — six months more than previously assumed — and Air France-KLM has already reduced its freighter orders.
What the Chart Says
The stock is trading at €214.20, just 3.19 percent below its 52-week high of €221.25. The RSI of 67.3 is approaching the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting a possible consolidation if delivery momentum doesn't accelerate soon. As long as the share price holds above the 50-day moving average of €187.75, the medium-term trend remains intact. A breakout above the record high would likely require August and September deliveries to climb to between 80 and 90 aircraft per month.
The next major milestone is the A350F's first flight, currently targeted for late 2026, followed by certification in 2027. If August and September delivery numbers fall significantly short of the 80-aircraft mark, the market will increasingly question the credibility of the company's ambitious annual targets. For now, the sky above Airbus looks clear — but in aviation, weather forecasts have always been a delicate discipline.
Ad
Airbus Stock: New Analysis - 7 August
Fresh Airbus information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
