Almonty Draws Fresh Analyst Backing as Western Tungsten Supply Tightens Further
Published on 09/03/2026 at 15:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The tungsten market is no longer one monolithic arena, and for Almonty Industries that fragmentation is turning into a competitive advantage. The Canadian miner, which has spent the past year shifting from development-stage story to cash-generating producer, now finds itself at the intersection of tightening Western supply chains and a wave of bullish sell-side coverage.
Jefferies kicked off coverage on Monday with a Buy rating, singling out Almonty as a preferred pick across the critical minerals supply chain. The bank's rationale centers on electrification-driven demand colliding with potential tungsten shortages — the metal being the core output of Almonty's Sangdong mine in South Korea's Gangwon province. The endorsement follows hot on the heels of GBC AG's August 20 initiation, which carried a Buy rating and a price target of EUR 25.87, converted from a USD 30.00 target set for end-2027.
A Structural Squeeze Beyond China's Borders
What gives these analyst calls their weight is a market dynamic that Almonty's management laid out in a newsletter published over the weekend. The message: Chinese and Western tungsten markets are increasingly decoupling. New US export restrictions on tungsten scrap, layered on top of China's tightening export policy as the dominant producer, are constricting supply outside China. For a miner whose flagship asset sits in South Korea — firmly outside Beijing's orbit — that constellation is proving price-supportive.
The operational proof arrived in June, when Sangdong began processing stockpiled raw material through its newly commissioned processing plant, yielding saleable tungsten concentrate for the first time. The financial impact showed up in the second-quarter results: revenue surged 498 percent year-over-year to CAD 42.989 million, while net income swung from a CAD 58.209 million loss in the prior-year quarter to a CAD 181.797 million profit. Adjusted EBITDA climbed from negative CAD 4.8 million to CAD 17.6 million.
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Contract Wins and a Fortified Balance Sheet
The Sangdong ramp-up has also translated into commercial traction. In July, Almonty renegotiated its long-term offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders LLC, part of Austria's Plansee Group. The contract extension added six years to the term, lifted contracted volumes by 40 percent, and improved pricing terms by roughly 6.3 percent. The deal now covers about 90 percent of Phase I concentrate production from Sangdong and pushes total contract revenue over the 21-year life to USD 490 million at current price levels — an uplift of at least USD 30 million in annual sales.
That agreement, alongside a USD 300 million share buyback program for up to 14.4 million common shares launched in August, has helped underpin the stock. Since the contract extension was announced just over a month ago, the share price has gained 8.8 percent, while the buyback has contributed an additional 8.0 percent rise since its start roughly two weeks ago.
The financial firepower behind these moves is considerable. A heavily oversubscribed USD 800 million bond issue in June, carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031, left the company with a cash position of CAD 1.2 billion at the end of the second quarter. Mid-July brought further deleveraging when Almonty fully repaid a KfW term loan of EUR 14.662 million.
Consolidation After a Powerful Run
Despite the accumulation of positive catalysts, the share price has recently taken a breather. The stock closed Wednesday at EUR 15.26, down 5.8 percent over the past seven trading sessions — though it remains comfortably above its 50-day average of EUR 13.23. That pullback follows a strong rally driven partly by the blockbuster Q2 numbers, and over the past twelve months the shares have more than quadrupled.
The consolidation phase coincides with a period of significant corporate restructuring. Almonty has exited its listings in Toronto and Sydney — the ASX delisting became effective yesterday, following the voluntary withdrawal from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the end of July. The company now trades solely on the Nasdaq under the ticker ALM and on the Frankfurt exchange, a streamlining intended to concentrate liquidity.
For Jefferies and GBC AG alike, the investment case rests on a straightforward proposition: secured offtake agreements, expanding processing capacity — with Phase I targeting roughly 640,000 tonnes of annual ore throughput and a potential Phase II expansion to 1.2 million tonnes — and a structurally tight global tungsten market. Sangdong remains in its commissioning and ramp-up phase, and the coming quarterly reports will offer the first real test of whether production volumes can meet the ambitious trajectory. The market backdrop, at least, appears to be cooperating.
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