Almonty's Buyback Program Puts a $300 Million Question to Tungsten's Doubters
Published on 08/30/2026 at 04:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The tungsten producer's share price has been on a tear that would make most mining executives envious — up 96 percent since January, with a 63 percent gain in the last month alone. Yet the rally's latest leg has collided with a fresh wave of skepticism, and the company's response has been characteristically assertive: a buyback program that could reach $300 million.
The board gave the green light on Monday to repurchase up to 14.4 million shares over a 36-month window, a plan that took effect on August 24. That represents roughly five percent of outstanding capital, and the timing is no accident. Almonty's coffers are flush after a June convertible bond issuance that drew heavy demand — the $800 million note, carrying a 2.25 percent coupon and maturing in 2031, was fully placed after the greenshoe option was exercised. Cash on hand stood at approximately 1.23 billion Canadian dollars as of June 30.
A Valuation Debate Heats Up
The buyback lands amid a growing chorus of caution about the stock's price tag. Media reports this week flagged a price-to-earnings ratio of 70.3 — more than triple the 21.1 average for U.S. mining peers. That scrutiny helped push the shares down 3.9 percent on Friday to close at €15.57, though the pullback looks modest against the broader trajectory. The stock remains 18 percent above its 50-day moving average of €13.24 and 23 percent above its 200-day line, with a 30-day annualized volatility of 92 percent that underscores just how hot this trade has run.
The valuation question is not deterring everyone. Institutional investors have been quietly building positions — Nykredit A/S disclosed a new stake of 3,500 shares on August 21, and the Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio earlier revealed a holding of 109,121 shares worth around $1.81 million. The buyback itself, management's argument goes, is the most direct rebuttal to claims that insiders think the stock is overpriced.
Insider Selling Tells a Different Story
But the insider activity complicates that narrative. Over the past 90 days, company insiders have sold shares worth a net $227.6 million, with executives accounting for $75.1 million of that total. Mark Trachuk offloaded roughly 200,000 shares in early July at about $16.97 each, trimming 7.4 percent of his direct stake. Brian Fox had earlier sold around 20,000 shares in March at approximately $15.74, representing 37 percent of his then-current direct holdings.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Those sales may simply reflect personal portfolio decisions rather than bearish conviction, but they coincide with another notable development: Almonty has registered shelf offerings totaling roughly $246.79 million for potential future issuance. The optics of buying back stock while simultaneously registering new shares for sale are, at minimum, unusual.
Tungsten's Two-Speed Market
The operational picture, meanwhile, remains robust. Second-quarter revenue surged 498 percent year-over-year to 43.0 million Canadian dollars, and net income swung to 181.8 million Canadian dollars from a loss of 58.2 million in the prior-year quarter. Operating cash flow turned positive in the first half at 31.6 million Canadian dollars, reversing a 14.9 million outflow. Those figures are all the more notable because they do not yet include meaningful production from the Sangdong mine in South Korea, which was still in its commissioning phase — the bulk of revenue came from the Panasqueira operation in Portugal.
The tungsten market itself is showing signs of strain, particularly in China. The domestic benchmark for ammonium paratungstate fell 24.6 percent in early August from the prior month, dropping from roughly $105,775 to $79,732 per tonne, as downstream demand softened and inventories built up. Western prices have held steadier — the CIF Rotterdam reference stood at around $3,075 per metric tonne unit — pointing to a widening divergence between the Chinese and Western tungsten markets.
That fragmentation helps explain Friday's share price dip, though the company has also been buttressed by a July expansion of its supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders: the contract extended by six years, volumes rose 40 percent, and pricing terms improved by roughly 6.3 percent.
A Slimmer Listing and a New Competitive Threat
Almonty has also moved to consolidate its listing structure, abandoning its Australian and Canadian quotations in favor of a primary Nasdaq listing — a shift that could enhance liquidity and visibility among the U.S. institutional investors who have been stepping in.
Competition, meanwhile, is stirring. Western Star Resources has completed a large-scale 3D magnetic inversion survey on its Nevada properties, identifying target zones that link high-grade samples with deeper intrusive bodies. If those prospects prove economically viable, they could eventually reshape a global supply picture currently dominated by Sangdong. That is not an immediate threat to Almonty's position, but it is a reminder that the company's market dominance is not guaranteed in perpetuity.
For now, the central tension is straightforward: can operational momentum and a $300 million buyback outweigh the combination of a frothy valuation, insider selling, and a softening Chinese tungsten market? The stock sits 24 percent below its 52-week high of €20.61, and the answer likely hinges on whether Sangdong's ramp-up translates into hard sales figures in the coming quarters. Until then, the debate between the bulls and the bears — and the company's own capital allocation — will continue to play out in the share price.
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