Almonty's Four-Pronged Tungsten Push: A $490 Million Contract, a $1.23 Billion War Chest, and a Stock Market Split Personality
Published on 08/13/2026 at 17:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tungsten producer's transition from mine developer to full-scale producer is generating plenty of noise — record revenue, a balance sheet stuffed with cash, and a stock that has swung wildly between algorithmic skepticism and Wall Street enthusiasm.
Almonty Industries closed out the second quarter of 2026 with roughly C$1.2 billion in cash, a figure that has more than quadrupled in six months. The capital came from an oversubscribed US$800 million convertible note placed on June 9, and management is putting it to work across four simultaneous expansion projects — an unusually broad offensive for a company of its size.
The Sangdong Contract Gets a Major Upgrade
The centerpiece of the strategy remains the Sangdong mine in South Korea, where processing operations kicked off on July 1. Almonty has renegotiated its concentrate supply agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders, a subsidiary of the Plansee Group, on significantly improved terms. The contract's duration has been extended from 15 to 21 years, offtake volumes have risen 40 percent to roughly 4.41 million MTU, and pricing has improved by approximately 6.3 percent.
The revised agreement is expected to generate at least US$30 million in additional annual revenue, bringing the total contract value to around US$490 million.
Beyond Sangdong's Phase I ramp-up, Almonty has plans for a Phase II expansion that would lift capacity to as much as 1.2 million tonnes per year, plus construction of a tungsten oxide plant in South Korea. Rounding out the pipeline are the Gentung project in Montana and an expansion of the Panasqueira mine in Portugal.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
A Quarter of Extremes
The financial results for the April-to-June period paint a picture of dramatic swings. Revenue jumped 498 percent year over year to C$43 million, driven primarily by the Sangdong production start. Sequentially, that represents a 69 percent gain from the prior quarter.
Net income came in at US$181.8 million, or US$0.62 per diluted share, a sharp reversal from the US$58.2 million loss posted a year earlier. But the headline number flatters: US$173.1 million of that figure stems from non-cash valuation gains on derivatives and warrants tied to the convertible notes. Stripping those out, GAAP earnings were US$0.10 per share — exactly matching the Zacks consensus estimate, versus a US$0.05 per-share loss in the prior-year period.
Zacks data also shows the reported revenue of US$31.05 million missed consensus expectations by 41.02 percent. The market didn't seem to mind: on August 4, the stock climbed 13.6 percent, suggesting investors are weighing the strategic trajectory more heavily than the near-term shortfall.
The Stock's Two Audiences
The share price has become a battleground between quantitative models and sell-side optimism. On August 12, the stock rose 8.2 percent to US$14.37, within a 52-week range of US$3.97 to US$24.41 — a spread that underscores just how volatile sentiment around the company has been.
GuruFocus's GF Value metric pegs fair value at just US$1.34, implying the stock is overvalued by roughly 972 percent at current levels. The accompanying GF Score of 53 out of 100 signals only average overall performance.
Wall Street sees things very differently. Eleven analysts have issued twelve-month price targets averaging US$16.29, implying upside of about 22.7 percent from current levels. That average has been revised upward by 12.4 percent over the past three months, and 84 percent of analysts rate the stock a buy. DA Davidson stands out as particularly bullish: the bank raised its target from US$25 to US$33 in July while reaffirming its buy rating, following a virtual roadshow with CEO Lewis Black. Analyst Matt Summerville cited progress at Sangdong, potential collaboration with the US government, the solid balance sheet, and record tungsten prices.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Consolidating the Listing
Almonty has also been tidying up its exchange presence. The Australian Securities Exchange has approved a voluntary delisting, with CDI trading ending August 28 and the delisting taking effect September 1. The company cited low and declining trading volumes in Australia relative to the Nasdaq. That follows a decision to withdraw from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the close of trading on July 31, for similar reasons. Going forward, trading will be concentrated on the Nasdaq — where the shares trade under the ticker ALM — and in Frankfurt.
The company also joined the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices at the end of June, a milestone that broadens its institutional investor base.
The Geopolitical Angle
CEO Lewis Black has framed the convertible note as a vehicle for securing strategic assets in the United States and building a Western tungsten supply chain independent of Chinese sources. He says Western governments and defense contractors have shown interest in the effort — tungsten being a critical metal for military and advanced technology applications.
Whether the strategy of funding four projects at varying stages of maturity pays off will largely hinge on how quickly the contracted offtake volumes from Sangdong translate into actual revenue and cash flow. The gap between algorithmic fair-value estimates and rising analyst targets remains wide, reflecting the divergent views on Almonty's transition from developer to producer.
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