Almonty's Record Quarter: A $182 Million Net Swing Hides the Real Story Beneath the Surface
Published on 08/13/2026 at 03:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers landing on Almonty Industries' Q2 2026 income statement are eye-catching by any measure. Revenue surged 498% year-over-year to $43.0 million, and the bottom line flipped from a net loss of $58.2 million to a net profit of $181.8 million. The stock responded with an 8.3% gain on Wednesday, settling at $14.37.
But the headline profit figure deserves a closer look before anyone mistakes it for pure operational muscle. Roughly $173.1 million of that net income came from non-cash revaluation gains on derivatives — a balance-sheet effect rather than cash flowing through the door. Strip that out, and the underlying picture is still markedly improved: adjusted EBITDA swung from negative $4.8 million in the year-ago quarter to positive $17.6 million.
Tungsten's Price Explosion Does the Heavy Lifting
The operational turnaround traces directly to the tungsten market, where the European APT price has gone vertical. From $453 per MTU in Q2 2025, the benchmark climbed to $3,075 per MTU in the reporting period — a near-sevenfold jump in twelve months.
Almonty has positioned itself to capture that upside. The company recently extended its key off-take agreement with GTP by six years, locking in a 40% higher volume commitment and a 6.3% price increase. Management now pegs the annual revenue potential from that contract at roughly $490 million at current prices, with the total agreement stretching across a 21-year horizon.
The company's diluted earnings per share came in at $0.62, a sharp reversal from the negative $0.30 posted a year earlier. For context, Q1 had delivered a modest loss of $0.02 per share on revenue of $25.40 million — already ahead of the $22.99 million consensus — while the latest quarter's $43 million in sales landed squarely within the $35–50 million range analysts had penciled in ahead of the release.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Sangdong Moves From Ramp-Up to Commercial Production
The strategic centerpiece remains Sangdong in South Korea, which began producing at the end of June and has now entered early commercial production. Phase I is targeting an annual throughput of 640,000 tonnes, with a second expansion stage designed to lift capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per year. Successfully scaling the operation would cement Almonty's standing among the more significant tungsten producers outside China — a meaningful distinction given Beijing's grip on roughly 80% of global output.
The geopolitical dimension is hard to overstate. Western buyers are increasingly seeking supply chains that don't route through China, and Sangdong's location and scale make it a natural beneficiary of that shift. The company's Portuguese operation, Panasqueira, adds another pillar: Q1 revenue there grew 221% to $25.4 million with EBITDA of $6.1 million.
An $800 Million War Chest — and the Questions It Raises
Alongside the quarterly results, Almonty secured $800 million in fresh capital through a convertible note carrying a 2.25% coupon and maturing in 2031. The company's cash position swelled to $1.23 billion as of June 30, up from $268.4 million at the end of 2025. CEO Lewis Black has framed the raise as straightforward insurance: the funds underwrite the continued expansion of Sangdong, the Gentung project in Montana, and Panasqueira.
That logic is sound, but the market is also weighing the dilution angle. A convertible of this size inevitably raises questions about future share count, and short sellers have taken notice. As of mid-July, short interest stood at roughly 6.6% of the float — about 19 million shares — fueling speculation that a squeeze dynamic could develop if the stock keeps climbing.
Valuation Remains the Elephant in the Room
For all the operational momentum, the equity's price tag is stretched by conventional metrics. The trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio sits at 83.1, and one GF-Value model puts fair value at just $1.34 — implying an overvaluation of roughly 972%. The company's profitability score comes in at a meager 2 out of 10, while growth earns a far healthier 7 out of 10.
The stock trades about 22% below its three-month high, with a 52-week range spanning $3.97 to $24.41. Analyst price targets cluster between $16 and $22, a range that sits above the current quote of around $13.70–$14.37 but still well below the stock's recent peak. No insider transactions have been reported in the past three months.
The next scheduled update arrives August 17, when the market will get its first look at whether the ramp-up at Sangdong can sustain the pace — and whether the tungsten price rally has further to run. For now, the bull case rests on a simple proposition: real operational progress, amplified by extraordinary commodity prices, against a valuation that already assumes a great deal goes right.
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