Almonty's Sangdong Bet: A Tungsten Price Tailwind, a Cost Headwind, and a C$47.9 Million Paper Cushion
Published on 11/14/2026 at 10:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty's 8.5% jump on Friday has put the tungsten miner back in the spotlight, but the gain does little to settle the question that really matters: whether the Sangdong project can convert its outsized role in non-Chinese supply into repeatable operating profit. Two research houses remain constructive on the stock, yet they are pulling in different directions on how much that promise is worth.
The bull case rests on scarcity and contracts. BofA analyst Lawson Winder reckons Sangdong, at full capacity, could account for more than 80% of tungsten production outside China — a position that would make Almonty a proxy for anyone betting on supply diversification away from the People's Republic. The caveat is baked into the estimate: that standing only materializes once the mine is running at full tilt.
Price backdrop lends support
Tungsten prices have been cooperating. The European APT average stood at $2,800 per MTU in the third quarter of 2026, and around $2,650 per MTU was quoted on November 6. That level gives Almonty room to earn — provided it can deliver saleable volumes at workable costs.
On the operational side, the ramp-up is showing early signs of life. Concentrate was produced for the first time in September, and the first shipment was loaded after the quarter closed. Phase I of Sangdong is designed for roughly 640,000 tonnes of ore a year, while the permitted Phase II is meant to lift that to as much as 1.2 million tonnes in 2027. More than 90% of Phase I output is locked into long-term contracts, giving the expansion a ready customer base.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
Two analysts, two weights on the same risks
Alliance Global, which flagged the recent pullback as a buying opportunity on the prior day, kept its buy rating and a $26.25 price target. It expects Sangdong to contribute more meaningfully to production and cash flow from the first quarter of 2027, though it noted that the most recently reported results came in slightly below expectations while the mine continues to ramp.
Stifel is also positive but more guarded. The firm reaffirmed its buy recommendation on the same day while cutting its target to $18 from $21, citing higher costs as the chief threat to the tungsten business. Read together, the two calls describe conditional confidence: the growth story still persuades, but cost inflation is capping what investors should pay for it.
The quarter behind the headline
The third-quarter 2026 figures offer a useful test of that tension. Adjusted EBITDA came in at C$14.6 million — a solid operating number. The reported result, however, was flattered by non-cash derivative and warrant gains of C$47.9 million, a reminder that valuation swings can dominate the bottom line without saying much about the mine itself.
That is why production performance and unit costs deserve as much attention as the tungsten price. A rich market only helps if Almonty can keep rising expenses from eating the advantage. The stronger investment case would be a business visibly improving its operating capability during the build-out, rather than one leaning on commodity prices for its margin.
What to watch from here
The next concrete checkpoint is the first quarter of 2027, when Alliance Global expects Sangdong's contribution to step up. Completion of the second expansion phase is slated for 2027, contingent on how Phase I performs and on market conditions. A valuation published today makes the bar explicit: a durable recovery assumes Sangdong ramps on schedule and that progress continues on the expansion and the oxide plant. Delays and permitting hurdles could undermine that view.
For now the stock's direction will hinge on execution. Evidence of steady ramp-up progress would reinforce the analysts' buy case; fresh cost pressure would justify Stifel's more conservative number. Almonty's potential standing outside China is the strong argument — the cost trajectory is the decisive reservation.
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