Almonty's Sangdong Ramp-Up Meets Its First Real Cost Test
Published on 11/14/2026 at 14:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty shareholders got a sharp reminder this week that a rising tungsten price is only half the story. The stock climbed 8.5% on Friday, but the session's real news was a pair of analyst notes that frame the same question in two different ways: can Sangdong's ramp-up outrun the cost pressure building behind it?
Stifel trimmed its price target to US$18 from US$21 while keeping its Buy rating, citing higher costs and a revenue figure that fell short of its own estimate. Alliance Global, by contrast, read the recent pullback as an entry point, reaffirming its Buy and a US$26.25 target. Both houses stay constructive; they simply weight the risks differently.
What the quarter actually showed
The third-quarter 2026 numbers, released Thursday, set the scale. Revenue reached C$41.9 million, up 382% year on year, a jump the company tied explicitly to tungsten prices. Adjusted EBITDA came in at C$14.6 million, and net profit rose 51% to C$50.2 million.
That combination matters because the price tailwind arrived alongside positive adjusted operating earnings rather than instead of them. The question for investors is how durable that result proves as production scales. Alliance Global judged the reported figures slightly below expectations, with Sangdong still working through its ramp-up.
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From first concentrate to first container
Sangdong produced tungsten concentrate for the first time in September 2026. After the quarter closed, the first container was loaded for overseas shipment — concrete steps along the path from commissioning to delivery.
More than 90% of first-phase output is locked into long-term contracts, giving the ramp-up a committed sales base. Alliance Global expects Sangdong to contribute more meaningfully to production and cashflow from the first quarter of 2027. The second expansion phase is slated for completion in 2027, contingent on how the first phase performs and on market conditions.
Beyond Korea, CEO Lewis Black used his November 8 newsletter to outline plans to restore US tungsten production through the Gentung project in Montana — a reminder that Almonty's industrial ambitions stretch past Sangdong.
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The bar for a friendlier valuation
Alliance Global's call rests on Sangdong ramping on schedule, alongside progress on the expansion and the oxide plant. Delays and permitting hurdles could undermine that view. Stifel's lower target, meanwhile, sharpens the same point from the cost side: until the ramp-up delivers on earnings expectations, higher costs argue for a more conservative valuation.
For all the attention a single trading day attracts, the more meaningful test sits in operations. Higher tungsten prices provide the tailwind; disciplined cost development has to convert it into operating income. Almonty has tangible production milestones to show. What they are worth to shareholders will be settled by the earnings that follow.
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