Almonty's Tungsten Bet: A $1.23 Billion Cash Pile, a 498% Revenue Surge, and a Contract That Just Got Bigger
Published on 08/13/2026 at 15:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of Almonty Industries this earnings season are the kind that usually demand a double take. Revenue up nearly fivefold year over year. A cash balance that has more than quadrupled in six months. And a net profit swing of roughly $240 million. But strip away the one-off accounting gains, and the underlying story is arguably more compelling: a mid-tier tungsten miner that has quietly positioned itself as a Western answer to Chinese supply dominance.
The Quarter Beneath the Surface
Almonty reported second-quarter 2026 results on August 11, with revenue climbing to $43.0 million from $7.2 million in the prior-year period — a 498 percent jump and a 69 percent sequential improvement. The headline net income figure of $181.8 million, or $0.62 per diluted share, looks spectacular at first glance. Yet $173.1 million of that stems from non-cash valuation gains on derivatives and warrants tied to convertible notes.
Excluding those items, Almonty earned $0.10 per share on a GAAP basis — a figure that matched the Zacks consensus estimate exactly and marked a clear improvement from the $0.05 per-share loss posted a year earlier.
The stock responded favorably, adding 8.2 percent on August 12 to close at $14.37. That puts the shares near the upper-middle of a 52-week range that stretches from $3.97 to $24.41 — a spread that captures just how volatile sentiment around the tungsten producer has been over the past year.
A War Chest Built on an Oversubscribed Note
The balance sheet transformation is the other headline. Almonty closed an oversubscribed $800 million convertible note offering on June 9, 2026, pushing its cash position from $268.4 million at the end of 2025 to $1.23 billion as of June 30. Management now describes the company as holding roughly C$1.2 billion in available funds.
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That capital is being deployed across four simultaneous growth projects: the Phase II expansion of the Sangdong mine in South Korea, a tungsten oxide processing facility in the same country, the Gentung project in Montana, and an expansion of the Panasqueira mine in Portugal. For a company of Almonty's size to run four capital projects in parallel speaks to the intensity of Western demand for non-Chinese tungsten supply.
CEO Lewis Black has framed the strategy in explicitly geopolitical terms, noting that Western governments and defense contractors are actively seeking alternatives to Chinese tungsten supply chains. Almonty's footprint across the US, South Korea, and Portugal places it squarely in the path of that demand.
Sangdong Ramps Up, Contracts Get Sweeter
Operationally, the Sangdong mine began processing ore on July 1, and the offtake agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders — part of the Plansee Group — was expanded almost simultaneously. The contract's term extended from 15 to 21 years, volumes grew 40 percent to 4.41 million MTU, and prices rose 6.3 percent.
The buyer has committed to taking roughly 90 percent of Phase I production, with minimum deliveries of 210,000 MTU annually. Almonty estimates the expanded agreement adds at least $30 million in annual revenue, values the total contract at approximately $490 million, and pegs incremental revenue over the full term at around $630 million.
The Gentung offtake in Montana received a similar upgrade: six additional years, 40 percent more volume, and the same 6.3 percent price increase. The parallel structure of the two deals suggests Almonty is exercising meaningful pricing power across its project portfolio.
The Listing Shuffle
Almonty is also consolidating its public market presence. The company voluntarily delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange at the close of trading on July 31, 2026, and has received approval from the Australian Securities Exchange for a voluntary delisting there. CDI trading ends August 28, with the ASX delisting effective September 1. Management cited comparatively low and declining trading volumes in Australia relative to the Nasdaq; the Toronto exit was justified on similar grounds. Going forward, trading will be concentrated on Nasdaq and Frankfurt.
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The company's inclusion in the Russell 1000 and Russell 3000 indices at the end of June should further boost visibility among US institutional investors.
A Valuation Debate With Two Very Different Answers
Where the stock goes from here depends heavily on which lens you use. Algorithmic valuation models are deeply skeptical: GuruFocus's GF Value estimate puts fair value at just $1.34, implying roughly 972 percent overvaluation at current levels, with a middling GF Score of 53 out of 100.
Wall Street sees it differently. Eleven analysts have issued twelve-month price targets averaging $16.29, suggesting roughly 22.7 percent upside. That average has been revised upward by 12.4 percent over the past three months, and 84 percent of analysts rate the stock a buy. DA Davidson stands out as particularly bullish, raising its target from $25 to $33 in July following a virtual roadshow with CEO Black. Analyst Matt Summerville cited progress at Sangdong, potential collaboration with the US government, the strengthened balance sheet, and record tungsten prices as key catalysts.
The gap between quantitative caution and sell-side enthusiasm reflects a deeper question: how to value a company transitioning from mine developer to full-fledged tungsten producer at a moment when geopolitical tailwinds are pushing prices to historic highs. With four projects in motion, a fully funded balance sheet, and long-term offtake secured, Almonty has bought itself the time — and the capital — to make its case.
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