Almonty's Two-Front Bet: Rwanda Expansion and a Korean Ramp-Up Test Investor Patience
Published on 09/17/2026 at 12:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has rarely been a stock that rewards the passive. The tungsten developer's recent trading action tells that story in miniature: a 5.1% advance to EUR 12.32 in one session, set against an 18% slide over the preceding seven days that left the shares at EUR 11.69 in European trading. Behind the whipsaw lies a more consequential question — whether management can convert a geopolitical tailwind into durable earnings before the market's patience runs out.
The strategic logic is hard to dispute. China controls roughly 80% of global tungsten supply, and Western governments have spent years trying to loosen that grip. From January 2027, the US Department of Defense will enforce strict restrictions on procuring tungsten from non-Western sources, giving Western processors a hard deadline to build alternative supply chains. Almonty has positioned itself at the center of that effort, advancing the Sangdong mine in South Korea alongside Panasqueira and Browns Lake.
A Korean Milestone and an African Beachhead
The industrial core of the story sits in South Korea's Gangwon province. More than a month ago, Almonty began processing operations at Sangdong, feeding previously extracted ore through its newly built plant to produce saleable tungsten concentrate. That commissioning phase is the company's true proving ground — until output runs reliably and at high quality, the economic foundation remains unproven.
A parallel push is unfolding in Central Africa. On Monday of last week, the company announced a binding joint venture with the Rwandan government. Rwanda receives a 25% stake in the subsidiary in exchange for the Shyorongi exploration concession and a mineral processing license. According to reports from Reuters and Bloomberg, the partnership was brokered with the involvement of the US State Department and rests on the bilateral framework agreement between Washington and Kigali signed in 2025.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Almonty?
The initial phase calls for ore and tailings from local license holders to be collected and exported using a mobile processing unit, with a centralized processing facility to follow. For shareholders, the move offers geographic diversification — and a correspondingly wider country-risk profile.
Buybacks, Analyst Coverage and a Stretched Multiple
Management has backed its conviction with capital. Roughly a month ago, the board authorized a share repurchase program of up to USD 300 million, covering as many as 14.4 million common shares over 36 months. CEO Lewis Black has made little secret of the view that the listing undervalues the company's assets — a position the board has echoed.
Sell-side opinion has followed. About two weeks ago, Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a USD 26.25 price target, citing Almonty's role in building Western supply chains.
The fundamental backdrop lends support. Industry reports point to continued volatility in the global tungsten market through 2026, with depleted inventories, Chinese export restrictions and a thin pipeline of near-term new projects tightening supply. For producers outside China, that combination confers pricing power of a kind not seen in years.
The Gap Between Narrative and Cash Flow
None of which erases the valuation debate. The stock is still up 47% year-to-date, and 55% at an earlier point in the run — gains that priced in considerable optimism. The recent pullback, attributed in media reports to valuation concerns, showed that investors are no longer waving through every premium multiple without complaint.
Strategic partnerships and policy mandates create offtake opportunities; they do not substitute for sustainable operating cash flow. Almonty's next chapter will be judged on how smoothly it moves from development to commercial-scale production — in Korea first, and then in Rwanda. The pieces are in place. The burden of proof starts now.
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