ASML's 2026 EUV Pipeline Points to 45% Revenue Jump as Analysts Circle the Stock
Published on 08/16/2026 at 13:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Dutch lithography giant is laying down a marker for the year after next. ASML's plan to ship roughly 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026 implies segment revenue growth of more than 45 percent year-on-year — a figure that gives investors a concrete anchor for the company's medium-term trajectory even as the current quarter's numbers take center stage.
That forward visibility is drawing fresh attention from the sell side. Goldman Sachs added the stock to its European conviction list in late July, and Bernstein followed in early August by naming ASML its top pick for the third quarter. The market has already begun to price in that enthusiasm: shares closed Friday at €1,590.00, down 1.0 percent on the day but up 5.4 percent across the trading week.
Capacity Expansion Signals Demand Beyond 2026
The production schedule for next year is only part of a broader build-out story. ASML intends to raise manufacturing capacity for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion tools by roughly 30 percent in 2027 compared with the current year, and is evaluating a further increase of a similar magnitude for 2028. The phased approach suggests management sees durable demand for leading-edge chipmaking equipment rather than a cyclical spike.
A recent customer milestone reinforces that thesis. Intel Foundry has moved a portion of its Core Ultra Series 3 processors — codenamed Panther Lake — into high-volume manufacturing using ASML's high-NA EUV technology on 18A process layers at its Oregon facility. The yields reportedly match those of the established NXE systems, providing ASML with evidence that its multi-billion-euro bet on the next lithography generation is translating into real-world production.
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Raised Guidance and Shareholder Returns
The company's upgraded outlook for the full year frames the current momentum. ASML now expects net sales between €43 billion and €45 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of 54 to 56 percent — the second upward revision since early July. For the third quarter, management has guided to revenue of €11 billion to €12 billion and a gross margin of 55 to 57 percent.
The second quarter delivered net sales of €9.3 billion and net income of €2.9 billion, translating to earnings per share of €7.59. Both revenue and margin came in ahead of the company's own projections, with the gross margin landing at 54.0 percent.
Cash generation remains robust enough to fund both growth and payouts. ASML repurchased approximately €1.1 billion worth of shares during the second quarter under its 2026–2028 buyback program, and paid an interim dividend of €1.88 per share on August 5. The combination of capital returns and capacity investment underscores the free cash flow the business is currently producing.
What the Market Is — and Isn't — Worrying About
Not every headline has been favorable. News from roughly two weeks ago that China had begun producing its own DUV lithography equipment sparked discussion, yet the stock has risen 11.9 percent since — suggesting investors do not view the development as an immediate threat to ASML's competitive position. Similarly, a class-action lawsuit that surfaced more than a month ago has done little to dent the rally; the shares are up 140.6 percent since that filing became public.
The stock has gained 73 percent since the start of the year and sits 9.0 percent below its 52-week high of €1,748.00. That run has narrowed the valuation headroom, but the operating fundamentals continue to support the multiple.
The next test arrives on October 14, when ASML reports third-quarter results. Between now and then, the market will be weighing dividend and buyback activity, fresh analyst commentary, and any further signals on the 2026 EUV delivery schedule against the raised bar the company has set for itself.
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