ASML's Buyback Machine Grinds On as Wall Street Circles a 16% Discount
Published on 09/01/2026 at 14:32 | Editorial boerse-global.de
The arithmetic at ASML is getting harder to ignore. The Dutch lithography giant spent roughly €380.85 million repurchasing 254,235 of its own shares between August 24 and 28, at a weighted average price of €1,498.14 apiece. That tranche follows a mid-August batch of 253,199 shares bought at prices ranging from €1,506.98 to €1,618.13 — all part of the €12 billion buyback program unveiled in January.
Yet here's the twist: the stock currently trades at €1,454.20, below the very prices ASML has been paying to buy its own paper back. On the week, the shares are down 2.9 percent, and they sit 5.2 percent beneath the 50-day moving average of €1,533.36. The gap between what management is willing to pay and what the market is offering has rarely been this conspicuous.
That disconnect is precisely what a cluster of sell-side firms is now leaning into. UBS analyst Francois-Xavier Bouvignies lifted his price target on Tuesday from €2,250 to €2,350 while reaffirming a buy rating — a level that implies substantial upside from current prices. Bank of America, meanwhile, re-upped ASML as a top pick in late August, dismissing the recent slide as unjustified. Barclays and DBS have also reaffirmed their buy recommendations in the same window, and one analyst held firm on a $2,452 target as recently as August 25, explicitly citing what he sees as an unwarranted valuation discount.
The clustering of bullish calls within days of one another suggests the Street views the pullback as a technical correction rather than a fundamental repricing. Technical indicators support that read: the RSI sits at 42.3, pointing to neither oversold nor overbought conditions, and the stock is trading about 16 percent off its 52-week high of €1,748.00, reached in late June. On Monday, the shares closed at €1,461.00, roughly 4.9 percent below the 50-day average of €1,535.59.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ASML Holding?
What makes the analyst chorus notable is that it comes despite — or perhaps because of — a month that has tested investor patience. Roughly a month ago, ASML raised its 2026 revenue forecast to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion, with a gross margin of 54 to 56 percent, a sharp step up from the prior guidance of €36 billion to €40 billion. For the third quarter, the company guided to net sales between €11.0 billion and €11.5 billion and a gross margin of 50 to 51 percent. Since that upgrade, the stock has shed around 7.4 percent — a reminder that operational momentum alone hasn't been enough to carry the share price.
The counterweight, as ever, is China. News that a domestic competitor has begun producing its own DUV lithography system has shadowed the stock for roughly a month, though the shares have actually gained 2.3 percent since that report emerged. More consequential is the regulatory front: the U.S. Congress is examining the MATCH Act, legislation that would effectively bar ASML from exporting DUV tools to China. Separately, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has reportedly pressed ASML executives in several private meetings since April over concerns that one of the company's EUV systems may have reached China in violation of export controls. The U.S. government is also said to be increasing pressure on the Dutch government to impose additional restrictions on DUV sales and servicing to Chinese customers — though nothing has been confirmed.
ASML's CFO has pegged China at roughly 20 percent of total revenue for 2026, which frames the stakes. The company's own view of its resilience, however, is anchored in something more tangible than analyst sentiment: EUV manufacturing capacity is booked nearly solid through the end of 2027, a position management says gives it room to raise prices on its machines.
The buybacks, the upgraded guidance, the full order book, and the wall of bullish analyst notes all point in one direction. The stock's 58 percent gain since the start of the year suggests the market hasn't entirely ignored that story — but the recent drift lower, set against the prices ASML itself is paying for its own shares, leaves the impression that the debate is far from settled. The next quarterly numbers, due October 14, will offer the clearest test yet of which side of that argument is right.
Ad
ASML Holding Stock: New Analysis - 1 September
Fresh ASML Holding information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
