AST SpaceMobile's Partner Model Faces a Two-Front Test as SpaceX Circles Terrestrial Turf
Published on 10/23/2026 at 19:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
AST SpaceMobile's bet on riding shotgun with established carriers rather than building its own network is about to be stress-tested from two directions at once. On one side, SpaceX is reportedly angling for a foothold in the physical infrastructure of US mobile service. On the other, a quartet of European operators has signaled interest in a shared satellite partner — a door that could open for AST, though nobody has walked through it yet.
Start with the competitive threat. Media reports say SpaceX is seeking access to at least 80,000 mobile sites across the United States, with possible infrastructure contracts that could be worth billions. FCC adviser Mark Bayliss frames the push as a geopolitical contest over who controls mobile networks, and he floats the idea that SpaceX could end up as a carrier in its own right. Under that scenario, AST SpaceMobile would supply the satellite layer sitting atop existing networks. Both are possible paths, not settled market roles.
For AST, that cuts both ways. Teaming with mobile operators is a different route than laying down a terrestrial network of its own — but the real question is whether technical demonstrations can be converted into paid services. Delays in getting satellites into service and hesitant partners on the commercial side remain the live risks.
Europe's Overture Is a Probe, Not a Purchase Order
Monday brought a warmer headline: AST SpaceMobile welcomed a letter of intent from Deutsche Telekom, Orange, TelefĂłnica and Vodafone. The four are weighing a possible joint bid for mobile satellite spectrum, and by their own account they want a satellite partner rather than building a constellation from scratch. That logic dovetails with AST's carrier-first playbook, in which European-operated ground infrastructure and the BlueBird satellites are meant to underpin readiness across the continent.
What matters for valuation, though, is the procedural stage. This is an examination of a possible bid. No spectrum award and no definitive contract are confirmed, and nothing in the announcement amounts to AST being formally selected as the satellite partner. Reuters, separately, reports talks with mobile infrastructure companies about a nationwide carrier program — discussions that concern a possible expansion of SpaceX's mobile activities, not an AST announcement, and that do not yet mean the program will happen. The distinction is central for investors: competitive pressure can build while the actual shape of any deal is still being negotiated.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying AST SpaceMobile?
AST's existing joint venture with Vodafone, which links the BlueBird satellites to carriers' core networks, gives it a cooperation track already in place. That alignment offers no shield against competition. What counts is whether AST can turn its technical groundwork into usable services and durable partnerships.
Rakuten Shows the Wiring Works — Not That It Pays
A concrete reference point exists in Japan. In April 2025 the companies demonstrated a satellite broadband video call using unmodified smartphones, and Rakuten had targeted a commercial AST satellite service from the fourth quarter of 2026. The visit underscores the working relationship but does not by itself prove a commercial launch. The gap between a functioning technical connection and a paid offering is exactly where the partner model has to prove itself.
Equity markets are not paying up for that prospect right now. With selling pressure persisting, the stock was quoted pre-market at €34.40, down 0.6% on the previous day.
The Numbers Wall Street Is Waiting For
Ahead of the next quarterly report, analysts expect revenue of $44.47 million — a 201.7% jump from the year-earlier quarter — alongside a loss per share of $0.39. Lofty growth expectations, in other words, sit next to an anticipated loss. These are estimates, not reported results, and they reveal just how much commercial progress the market is assuming.
Ratings are split. Zacks rates AST SpaceMobile a "Hold," while an analysis published yesterday sticks with a sell recommendation, citing a delayed satellite deployment schedule and declining revenue revisions. Lower valuation multiples, in that view, are not enough to justify a more favorable call.
On the operating side, AST has reaffirmed first satellite service and held out intermittent broadband coverage before the end of 2026, with the United States and Canada among the intended markets alongside Japan, the UK and Saudi Arabia. That describes an initial coverage step, not full commercial operation — a distinction that matters for calibrating expectations. Roughly two weeks ago, Piper Sandler pushed its forecast for commercial US service to the second half of 2027, pointing to doubts about the pace of satellite launches and SpaceX's expansion.
Two tasks now sit in front of AST: deliver the promised start of service and put flesh on its partnerships. The European initiative opens a perspective, but it substitutes for neither a final contract nor proof of a reliably available service.
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