AST SpaceMobile's Partner Momentum Meets a Sobering Price Reset
Published on 10/24/2026 at 18:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two analyst notes landed on AST SpaceMobile this week pointing in opposite directions, and the gap between them says more about the company's real situation than either call on its own. Piper Sandler trimmed its price target on the satellite-to-smartphone specialist from $98 to $54, while Scotiabank upgraded the stock from sector-underperform to sector-outperform and lifted its target from $50.80 to $55.70. The upgrade helped lift the shares 2.7% yesterday, according to media reports.
The split is instructive. Scotiabank's note did not pretend SpaceX had gone away. The bank conceded that competition concerns tied to SpaceX's spectrum acquisition were justified, yet argued that AST's wholesale model for mobile operators still holds value. That framing matters more than the headline rating change: it describes a reason carriers might work with AST despite a rival's advance, rather than a competitor that has conveniently vanished.
Brazil Brings Infrastructure, Not Yet Revenue
The day before, AST announced partnerships with Brazilian operators Brisanet, Unifique and iez! Telecom. Under the plan, the carriers would supply spectrum in the 700 MHz band and finance the ground stations linking to the satellites. Voice, broadband and video are envisaged on ordinary smartphones, with service extending beyond the reach of terrestrial networks. Users would need neither an extra device nor a special app, and the operators would set their own tariffs.
That division of labor is the most substantive part of the announcement. The partners are not merely lending their names; they are putting up infrastructure money and spectrum. Still, final contract terms are outstanding, and any launch depends on available satellite capacity. A partnership can prepare market access—it does not substitute for technical delivery or commercial execution.
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A Price Assumption Cut by a Fifth
Piper Sandler's revision offers a window into how sensitive the economics are. The firm lowered its assumed monthly price to $12 from $15—a 20% cut. That is an analyst assumption, not an announced Brazilian tariff, and the distinction is central. A connection that works technically does not answer what customers will pay for it. Lower expected revenue must be offset elsewhere in the equation, and more partners alone will not solve that.
The target cut to $54 should not be read as a verdict against the technology. It is closer to a warning against mistaking potential reach for secured income.
Europe's Letter of Intent Is an Option, Not a Win
On Monday, AST welcomed a letter of intent from Deutsche Telekom, Orange, TelefĂłnica and Vodafone. The four carriers will examine a possible joint bid for European mobile satellite spectrum. AST noted that its European-operated ground infrastructure and the capabilities of its BlueBird satellites could support such an initiative.
The link to potential partners is real, but treating it as a spectrum win or a signed order would be premature. The letter of intent covers only the carriers' review of a possible joint bid. The distance between interest, a bid and secured access remains wide, and collapsing those steps means valuing a possibility as if it were a result.
Coverage Targets Carry Their Own Asterisks
AST has held out the prospect of an initial, intermittent satellite-based mobile broadband service before the end of 2026 in the US, Canada, Japan, the UK and Saudi Arabia. The company is explicit that this is not continuous coverage—a caveat that belongs at the center of any assessment, not in a footnote.
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The infrastructure figures deserve the same care. AST reported more than 3,000 switched-on coverage cells in the US, with roughly 5,600 due to be activated by year-end. The first number is a reported status; the second is an expectation.
The Clock and the Competition
SpaceX, meanwhile, plans to deploy further mobile satellites through 2027 and to launch a service with expanded spectrum in early 2028. Those plans could sharpen price competition, though nationwide mobile operation remains unproven at Starlink as well. Neither side, then, has a secured success story to point to—both must deliver.
What would count as proof for AST? Final agreements, available satellite capacity and a service that can actually be marketed. Until those arrive, the Brazilian arrangement improves the outlook for market access without settling the question of an attractive business. The measure is not the next partner announcement but the passage from announced reach to economically convincing operation. Scotiabank's brighter view improves perception; it does not replace the test.
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