BASF's Evonik Charm Offensive Runs Into a 43% Roadblock
Published on 10/13/2026 at 08:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik's stock has slipped back toward the 21-euro line as investors weigh a takeover saga that has stalled at the doorstep of the company's anchor shareholder. The specialty chemicals maker's shares closed Monday at EUR 20.96, down 2.1%, a retreat that came without any operational trigger but reflected fading momentum in the BASF approach.
That decline left the stock just shy of its 52-week high of EUR 21.62 — a level that captures the push-and-pull set in motion since the two chemical giants' courtship became public. In the latest session, the shares gave up another 2.2% to trade at EUR 20.94, putting Evonik's market capitalization at EUR 9.78 billion.
The Foundation Holds the Cards
Everything hinges on the RAG-Stiftung, which owns 43% of Evonik and has signaled it intends to cut that stake to 25.1% over time. The foundation's board of trustees was briefed last Friday on BASF's advances, but according to Handelsblatt it stopped short of endorsing either side, instead directing the two companies into direct bilateral negotiations. The ball, for now, sits with the two management boards.
BASF has moved to smooth the path on the labor front. People close to the Ludwigshafen-based group told Reuters it would be prepared to contractually guarantee Evonik's German sites and employment through 2032 in the event of a takeover. Compulsory redundancies would be ruled out, with any job cuts handled through voluntary programs and severance payments. BASF declined to comment officially.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
A Pledge That Cuts Both Ways
That commitment is designed to blunt fierce opposition from workers and their representatives — but it also narrows the room for quick cost savings after any combination. Value would instead have to come from portfolio adjustments, scale effects and strategic growth. The IG BCE union is pressing for reliable long-term prospects and binding investment commitments at existing sites.
Politics has entered the fray as well. The SPD faction in North Rhine-Westphalia's state parliament floated the idea of the state taking a stake alongside the RAG-Stiftung to secure a controlling majority, according to dpa. The state government has stressed that jobs and Evonik's independent development must not be jeopardized by a deal, and the NRW parliament was due to debate the situation on Wednesday.
Price Tag Still Unsettled
Evonik rejected an earlier offer of EUR 22.15 per share as too low. Depending on the calculation method, that figure valued the company at EUR 10.3 billion or EUR 14 billion. The Financial Times recently put a conceivable valuation at around EUR 12 billion. Market participants are speculating whether BASF might sweeten its terms if formal talks resume, in a bid to bring Evonik's management board and supervisory board to the table.
Analysts, meanwhile, are keeping their powder dry ahead of hard numbers. René Parmantier of Parmantier & Cie. GmbH rated the stock "Hold" on October 6 with a price target of EUR 20.50. Berenberg had already upgraded its rating to "Hold" and raised its target to EUR 20, a move dpa-AFX attributed to BASF's takeover interest.
The next real test comes on November 3, when Evonik publishes its third-quarter 2026 report — a chance to show how the underlying business has performed amid the persistent speculation.
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