Bayer Lifts EBITDA Guidance as Strong Pharma Business Offsets Legal Overhang
Published on 11/03/2026 at 14:12 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer raised its currency-adjusted full-year forecast for EBITDA before special items to EUR 9.8 to 10.3 billion on Tuesday, pointing to momentum in its pharmaceuticals division as the main driver. Investors welcomed the upgrade, sending the stock up 5.2% following the release of third-quarter figures.
The new range compares with a previous target of EUR 9.6 to 10.1 billion for full-year 2026. Alongside the quarterly report, the group also improved its expectations for free cash flow and net financial debt. Bayer now anticipates a smaller cash outflow for the full year than previously guided, and trimmed its net debt forecast by EUR 1 billion to a range of EUR 28 to 29 billion.
Third-Quarter Performance
Revenue for the three months through September 2026 came in at EUR 10.053 billion, with EBITDA before special items of EUR 1.615 billion. That translates into nominal sales growth of 4.1%, while EBITDA before special items advanced 6.9%. The pharma unit was the standout, posting an 8% increase in sales to EUR 4.68 billion.
Analysts Split on the Print
JPMorgan reaffirmed its "Overweight" rating and EUR 61 price target following the results, according to media reports. Analyst Richard Vosser highlighted the positive surprise on EBITDA. Jefferies, by contrast, kept its "Hold" rating and EUR 46 target. Michael Leuchten acknowledged the beats on revenue and adjusted EBITDA but noted that core earnings per share fell short of consensus.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
The divergent assessments echo the split verdict the analyst community had already delivered days earlier on Bayer's legal fortunes. Leuchten described the courtroom success against Roundup claims as encouraging but declined to move off "Hold" with his EUR 46 target, noting that judicial approval of Bayer's glyphosat mass settlement was still outstanding as of Friday. Vosser, for his part, framed the won glyphosate case as a further step toward containing the litigation, confirming "Overweight" and his EUR 61 target. He anticipated a positive share price reaction, though the note carried no new upgrade.
Missouri Jury Rejects Three Claims
A jury in Missouri on Friday unanimously dismissed claims brought by three women who attributed their cancer to Roundup. According to Bayer, it was the first Roundup trial win for subsidiary Monsanto since the US Supreme Court's decision in the Durnell case. Reuters described the verdict as Bayer's first glyphosate trial victory since that ruling.
Pipeline Momentum Builds
Beyond the courtroom, Bayer has logged a string of regulatory and clinical wins. China's drug regulator NMPA granted approval to Asundexian under the name Sunharbo for reducing stroke risk, indicated for adults following a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA. Bayer said the approval rested on the Phase III OCEANIC-STROKE study.
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Roughly two weeks earlier, the company reported an interim analysis from the DASL-HiCaP trial. Darolutamide combined with androgen deprivation therapy and radiotherapy cut the risk of metastases or death by 58% versus placebo. The four-year metastasis-free survival rate stood at 95% against 88%.
Bayer had flagged the quarterly statement and third-quarter 2026 results for 7:30 a.m. CET, with an investor video call scheduled for 14:00 CET.
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