Bayer's Courtroom Win, China Approvals and Raised Guidance Converge as Broker Targets Diverge
Published on 11/09/2026 at 11:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bayer's subsidiary Monsanto emerged victorious from a Roundup trial in Missouri on 29 October, with the jury ruling unanimously in the company's favour across claims brought by three women. The verdict, confirmed by Bayer, is separate from a proposed $7.25 billion settlement that remains under judicial review in the same state.
Bill Anderson, Bayer's chief executive, said roughly a week ago that the company expects a decision on that settlement before Christmas. That remains a company expectation rather than a confirmed ruling date, and the court has yet to issue its determination.
Two brokers, two targets
Analyst reaction landed on 3 November. UBS lifted its price target on Bayer from €62 to €66 while keeping a "Buy" rating, according to media reports. J.P. Morgan reaffirmed "Overweight" with a €61 target the same day — a spread that leaves the two houses reading the same equity quite differently.
Guidance raised on the back of pharma momentum
The upgraded targets follow Bayer's decision roughly a week ago to raise its 2026 outlook after quarterly results came in ahead of expectations. Reuters reported that the pharmaceuticals division outperformed, prompting the company to lift its forecast for the segment's EBITDA margin to 25 to 27 percent for 2026.
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At group level, currency-adjusted EBITDA before special items is now projected at €9.8–10.3 billion, up from a prior range of €9.6–10.1 billion. Bayer also improved its guidance for free cash flow, now seen at ?€1.5 to ?€0.5 billion, and for net financial debt, which it expects to land at €28–29 billion by year-end.
The third quarter of 2026 delivered group revenue of €10.1 billion and EBITDA before special items of €1.62 billion. Within pharmaceuticals, sales reached €4.68 billion — a currency- and portfolio-adjusted increase of 6.4 percent.
A regulatory winning streak in China
China has become a productive market for the German group of late. On Wednesday Bayer announced approval of Sevabertinib as a first-line treatment for patients with HER2-mutated non-small cell lung cancer. That followed China's 26 October clearance of Asundexian under the brand name Sunharbo, indicated for reducing stroke risk after non-cardioembolic ischaemic stroke or high-risk TIA. Bayer described Asundexian as the first factor XIa inhibitor available in China.
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Cardiovascular data takes the stage in Chicago
Attention now shifts to the AHA Scientific Sessions, running 6–9 November 2026 in Chicago, where Bayer has said it will present new data on cardiovascular disease, kidney health and stroke. Several moderated digital posters covering Finerenone and Empagliflozin are scheduled for 9 November, putting both compounds in the research spotlight on the closing day of the congress.
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Bayer Stock: New Analysis - 9 November
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