Bayer's Two-Track Reckoning: A €375 Million Oncology Exit and a $7.25 Billion Courtroom Gamble
Published on 09/22/2026 at 20:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Two unrelated events are converging on Bayer's equity story this autumn, and the market is treating both as referendums on management's ability to draw a line under the past. In Leverkusen, the agricultural and pharmaceutical group has agreed to hand worldwide rights to its established cancer drug Stivarga to Aachen-based Grünenthal, a deal worth up to €375 million. An ocean away, Monsanto filed on 14 September with a Missouri court seeking approval of a $7.25 billion settlement aimed at resolving tens of thousands of US claims.
The timing is hardly incidental. After years of investor frustration, Bayer is reshuffling its pharma portfolio to lock in value ahead of patent expiries, while simultaneously trying to cap the legal liabilities that have weighed on its valuation since the Monsanto acquisition.
A Declining Asset, Sold Before the Cliff
Stivarga, whose active ingredient is regorafenib, is used against advanced forms of colorectal, liver and gastric cancer. More than a million patients have been treated with it over the past decade. Even so, the drug is steadily losing ground inside Bayer as competition erodes its revenue base.
The numbers tell the story bluntly. Sales fell 25% to €338 million in the 2025 financial year, and the decline accelerated in the first half of 2026 with a further 18% drop to €148 million. Generic rivals are only part of the explanation; state tender systems in the Chinese market are doing much of the damage. Full patent loss does not arrive until 2029 in Europe and 2030 in the United States, but pricing pressure is already biting well before those dates.
For Grünenthal, the calculus still works. The Aachen manufacturer is targeting an EBITDA contribution of up to €100 million from 2027. Bayer, for its part, gets a clean exit from a shrinking revenue stream. Closing is earmarked for late 2026 or early 2027, subject to regulatory clearance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
What the Missouri Filing Changes
The settlement application lodged with the Missouri court carries staggered payouts ranging from $10,000 to $165,000 for certain claimants, according to Reuters. If approved, it would remove the single largest overhang on Bayer's equity story — a legal cloud that has tied up management attention for years and made reliable valuation of the operating business difficult.
The stock has already begun to reflect that hope. Shares changed hands at €48.90 in the secondary source's snapshot, up 32% year-to-date, while the primary source puts the current quote at €49.44 with a 34% gain since the start of the year. Either way, the re-rating has been substantial.
Approval is not assured. US courts scrutinise class settlements closely, particularly on the treatment of future or dissenting claims. Claimants unhappy with the proposed sums could pursue individual litigation outside the framework, and a meaningful number of opt-outs would leave the risk of further costly trials intact. A rejection in Missouri would return Bayer to square one, with the full uncertainty over its total liability snapping back into focus.
Pipeline Momentum Waiting in the Wings
With the legal picture potentially clearing, attention can shift to operations. Bayer's pharma pipeline has notched several wins: the FDA granted accelerated approval to Sevabertinib as a first-line therapy for HER2-mutated non-small cell lung cancer, and cleared Finerenone for chronic kidney disease associated with type 1 diabetes. The US regulator also broadened the Kerendia label more than a month ago.
On the agricultural side, subsidiary Robigo and Leaps by Bayer announced a Series A financing to develop genetically engineered biological products designed to protect yields and cut farming costs. In a calmer legal environment, such steps could carry more weight with investors.
Two Clocks, One Stock
The investment case now rests on whether Bayer can monetise eroding legacy revenue before generic competition destroys the margins entirely — and whether the Missouri judge signs off on the $7.25 billion handshake. Proceeds from disposals like Stivarga are earmarked to strengthen financial flexibility and chip away at the group's debt load, a demand investors have been making for months.
The technical picture adds its own markers. As long as the shares hold above €48, the broader uptrend stays intact and the 52-week high of €53.86 comes back into range. A sustained break below support around €44 would open the door to a retest of the year's lows.
The next hard test is already on the calendar. On 3 November 2026, Bayer publishes full third-quarter figures, offering the first detailed look at how far the portfolio overhaul has progressed and whether the adjusted pharma division can underpin analysts' full-year earnings expectations. Until then, the Missouri ruling and the Stivarga closing timeline remain the two clocks ticking on the same stock.
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