Berlin's Commerzbank Stance Softens as UniCredit Nears a Controlling Stake
Published on 08/18/2026 at 09:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The German government's long-held reluctance to part with its remaining Commerzbank shares appears to be thawing. According to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter, Berlin is now open to discussing the sale of its 12.7 percent stake in the Frankfurt-based lender to UniCredit — though the report stops well short of suggesting a deal is imminent. The sources stressed that no formal government position exists and that talks, let alone a transaction, are far from guaranteed.
The shift marks a notable departure from the federal government's previous posture, which had kept the takeover question politically frozen for months. Under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the administration is now signalling a willingness to engage — but with strings attached. Any sale would hinge on a strategic meeting of minds between UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel and Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp, as well as the backing of the German bank's management. Without that alignment, Berlin is expected to hold onto its position.
A Stake Already Approaching Majority
The arithmetic already favours the Italians. Following a public exchange offer, UniCredit holds just shy of 50 percent of Commerzbank. Should the federal government add its 12.7 percent to that pile, the Milan-based group would vault past the 60 percent threshold, cementing control over one of Germany's flagship lenders. BaFin already treats UniCredit's current holding as a full majority stake, and the European Central Bank's formal assessment is expected in September or October.
For Orcel, the prospect of Berlin joining the seller side would represent another milestone in a takeover battle that has stretched on for months. The Italian bank's operational momentum remains strong — UniCredit has posted record profits in recent quarters, according to the FAZ, even as it presses ahead with the Commerzbank acquisition in parallel.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Record Numbers Fortify Frankfurt's Position
The political headlines land at a moment when Commerzbank's own numbers are doing the talking. Roughly two weeks ago, the lender delivered record results, lifting its full-year profit guidance to at least €3.4 billion from a prior floor of €3.2 billion. Management also confirmed plans to return €3.2 billion to shareholders and unveiled a fresh buyback programme of up to €1.2 billion, slated to begin in the autumn once the ECB gives its blessing.
The regulatory backdrop has been cautiously encouraging. The ECB issued a preliminary, confidential assessment on Sunday without raising objections, though the formal review is not expected until September or October 2026. The stock slipped 1.2 percent in the wake of that update — a modest dip that could quickly be overshadowed by the fresh political signals from Berlin.
Operationally, the bank is also pressing forward with its own agenda. Management announced a switch of its credit card network partner from Mastercard to Visa, a move aimed at modernising digital payments for retail customers. That a strategic decision of this kind lands in the middle of live takeover discussions suggests the management team is keeping the day-to-day business on track despite the surrounding uncertainty.
Shares Near Record Highs
The market's response to the latest headlines has been measured. The shares closed Monday at €39.39, down 1.1 percent on the day, leaving them just 1.8 percent below the 52-week high of €40.11 reached on August 13. Over the past month, the stock has gained 7.3 percent, while the year-to-date advance stands at 9.1 percent. The 12 percent gap to the 200-day moving average underscores the durability of the recent uptrend.
Investors will be watching September 3, when Commerzbank takes part in the Commerzbank & ODDO Corporate Conference in Frankfurt — an event likely to draw extra scrutiny given the shifting political calculus.
For shareholders, the core question remains whether Orcel and Orlopp can actually find common ground on strategy. If they do, Berlin's newfound willingness to talk could translate into a concrete sale process. If not, the federal government's stake stays put, and the standoff grinds on.
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