BMW's Autumn Crossroads: A 60-Euro Stock Hangs on China and the Neue Klasse
Published on 08/14/2026 at 02:51 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The math at BMW is brutally simple right now. The Munich-based automaker's second-quarter net profit tumbled 35 percent to €1.2 billion, revenue slid 7.9 percent to €31.3 billion, and the operating margin in its core automotive division collapsed from 5.4 percent to just 2.3 percent. Yet the share price, hovering at €59.18, sits barely 5 percent above its 52-week low — a level that suggests investors have already priced in the worst.
What happens between now and the end of September will determine whether that pessimism is justified or overdone. The company has two levers it believes can turn the tide: the production ramp-up of the all-electric i3 at its Munich plant, the first model built on the "Neue Klasse" platform, and a restructuring program that will eliminate roughly 8,000 jobs by the end of 2027 — about 5 percent of the workforce.
The China Question Looms Over Everything
The single biggest variable is the Chinese market, where BMW's second-quarter deliveries collapsed by 30.2 percent to 117,927 vehicles. That decline, combined with heavy upfront spending on the new model offensive, is what crushed the second-quarter results. The company continues to emphasize a "technology-open approach" — a deliberate signal that it won't bet exclusively on battery-electric powertrains — even as BEV registrations in July continued to climb.
The stakes are straightforward: if Chinese demand merely stabilizes rather than deteriorating further, the cost-cutting program and i3 launch may be enough to repair the margin. If it keeps eroding, the billions already committed to the model offensive risk becoming a burden without a corresponding payoff.
A Buyback That Speaks Volumes
Amid the gloom, BMW has been quietly buying its own stock. Between August 3 and 9, the company repurchased nearly 600,000 ordinary shares at average prices between €59 and €61 as part of its 2025–2027 buyback program. The optics may seem contradictory — shedding thousands of jobs while returning capital to shareholders — but the program runs on a multi-year timetable independent of the current earnings dip. For investors, it's at least a signal that management considers the shares cheap at roughly 40 percent below the 52-week high of €97.90.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BMW?
There are other glimmers of operational strength. European deliveries of battery-electric vehicles grew 38 percent in the second quarter, propelled by the new iX3, which has already attracted around 100,000 pre-orders globally. Sales rose in Germany and the US during the first half, even as tariffs in the US and EU shaved 1.25 percentage points off the second-quarter margin.
The Cost-Cutting Blueprint
The job reductions will target administration and development rather than production, with more than half the affected positions located in Germany. The agreement with the works council, reached last Thursday, rules out compulsory redundancies and extends job security guarantees by one year. The restructuring is expected to generate annual savings of around €1 billion from 2028 onward, but 2026 itself will carry a one-time charge of roughly €1 billion.
The plan has its skeptics. Goldman Sachs has already cited the risk of higher-than-expected provisions for personnel costs as a reason for trimming its price target to €82. The DZ Bank went further in early August, downgrading the stock from "Buy" to "Hold" with a fair value cut to €65, explicitly citing the lack of momentum from China. RBC Capital Markets remains cautious with a "Sector Perform" rating and a €62 target.
New Leadership, New Factories
The transformation extends to the boardroom. On September 1, Dorothea von Boxberg — previously at the helm of Brussels Airlines and Lufthansa Cargo — takes over the human resources portfolio from Ilka Horstmeier, inheriting responsibility for executing the job cuts before they've fully begun.
Production capacity is also shifting toward electrification. Munich is slated to become an all-EV plant from 2027, while new manufacturing sites for electric models are under development in Spartanburg and San Luis PotosĂ.
The Capital Markets Day Test
The stock currently trades 2.5 percent below its 50-day average of €60.70, hovering just under the €60 threshold. That leaves the market in a holding pattern — neither capitulation nor a clear buy signal. A sustained break below the recent 52-week low of €56.40 would vindicate the bears who argue that BMW's China problem is structural rather than cyclical.
The next concrete test comes on September 29–30, when BMW hosts its Capital Markets Day. RBC has already flagged the event as a key catalyst, where management — including von Boxberg — will need to convince investors that the cost-saving plans are credible and deliver a convincing roadmap for the post-2027 period. Until then, the stock remains a play for investors willing to wait out a multi-stage turnaround, with no guarantee that China will cooperate on schedule.
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