Commerzbank Calls Gold's Slide Overdone as Central Bank Buying and ETF Records Underpin Rebound
Published on 11/04/2026 at 15:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold climbed 3.0% today, settling near $4,046 an ounce as a softer dollar and retreating US Treasury yields combined with relief after the Democrats' midterm election success. Reuters attributes the rally to that dollar-and-yields backdrop. Commerzbank, however, is looking at the same move from a different angle — and argues the sell-off that preceded it was likely overdone.
Analyst Carsten Fritsch suggests forced selling, rather than a genuine deterioration in demand, may have amplified the correction. Investors nursing losses on technology stocks, he reasons, may have liquidated gold positions to raise cash, weighing on both exchange-traded gold funds and futures contracts. That mechanism would explain how bullion came under pressure even while concerns over US public finances persisted. It is an assessment of possible causes, not proof that the drag has fully lifted.
A Split Demand Picture Beneath the Headline
Fund flows hardly point to a uniform retreat. SPDR Gold Shares saw outflows in October, yet other gold funds attracted inflows of roughly the same size, according to Bloomberg. Speculative net long positions, meanwhile, fell to a five-month low during the month.
The World Gold Council's latest figures reinforce the theme of divergence rather than a single demand shock. Central banks and other official institutions bought 321 tonnes net in the reporting quarter — 42% more than a year earlier — taking purchases from January through September to 675 tonnes. Gold ETFs added 211 tonnes over the quarter, lifting their holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
The picture darkens at the retail end. The WGC cut its forecast for year-on-year growth in bar and coin demand for 2026 to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, citing weakening appetite for physical investment products. Strong institutional buying, in other words, does not carry over to every category of buyer.
Price Targets Held, Rate Risk Intact
Commerzbank is sticking with the forecasts it issued on 10 September: $4,500 an ounce by the end of 2026 and $5,000 by the end of 2027. The call rests partly on America's strained fiscal position — the bank points to the hefty deficit and mounting national debt as a longer-term counterweight to the burden of high interest rates.
That optimism does not assume imminent rate cuts. The bank considers another Federal Reserve hike in December highly likely, which caps how much support the recovery thesis can draw from monetary policy.
Friday's US employment report now looms as the next concrete test, with investors watching the data for signals on the Fed's path. For gold, two forces are pulling in opposite directions: fiscal uncertainty and the possibility of past forced selling argue for Fritsch's rebound case, while the prospect of higher US rates limits its reach. Whether the jobs numbers sharpen or ease that rate pressure is the question that matters next.
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