Deutsche Telekom's Earnings Day Arrives With the Merger Story Already Off the Table
Published on 08/05/2026 at 12:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The script has changed before the numbers have even landed. When Deutsche Telekom publishes its second-quarter and first-half results on Thursday, August 6, the company will do so without the merger narrative that once framed its growth story — and with a share price that has already begun to price in the fallout.
The stock closed Tuesday at €27.97, having gained 2.12% over the preceding week. That advance, however, came after a turbulent Wednesday session that saw the shares slide 1.75% to €27.48 on reports that the full-scale combination with T-Mobile US had been shelved. The reasons cited range from regulatory hurdles and tax complexity to resistance from US management and institutional minority shareholders. Whatever the precise mix, the market's initial reaction was telling: relief that the transaction risk and its attendant questions over future capital structure had evaporated.
A Buyback Signal Amid the Noise
Adding a further layer of support, the company completed the third tranche of its 2026 share buyback program in July, repurchasing 6,363,064 of its own shares between the 1st and 31st of the month. The ongoing repurchases tighten the supply of freely tradable stock and have historically provided a floor under the price.
Yet the charts are not entirely comfortable. Tuesday's session produced a "hanging man" candlestick pattern — a formation technicians read as a short-term warning. One signal does not overturn a fundamental view, but it does suggest the recent rebound is not without its skeptics.
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The Core Question: Can Operations Carry the Load Alone?
With the merger fantasy gone, the central test for Thursday becomes straightforward: are the underlying businesses in the US and Europe generating enough momentum on their own? T-Mobile US, long the group's growth engine, recently delivered strong operational numbers for its own second quarter but disappointed on customer retention guidance. The subsidiary's shares fell around 10% in response. That softness in churn expectations, combined with SpaceX's roughly $19.6 billion acquisition of mobile spectrum — a clear signal of intent to challenge terrestrial mobile operators — has injected fresh uncertainty into the US picture.
The parent company's full-year targets remain the anchor: adjusted EBITDA AL of approximately €47.5 billion and free cash flow above €19.8 billion. In the first quarter, the German domestic business grew organic revenue 2.1% to €6.3 billion, providing a measure of home-market stability. Analysts at Citi and Morgan Stanley have also suggested that concerns over new entrants like Starlink may be overstated.
What the Bulls and Bears Are Watching
For the optimistic camp, the key metric is free cash flow. If Thursday's report confirms the trajectory sketched out by T-Mobile US — which raised its adjusted free cash flow forecast to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion — the merger debate could quickly recede into the background. A consensus earnings per share figure of €0.561, met or beaten, would bolster confidence, and an intact cash flow outlook would secure the dividend story.
The technical picture offers some support as well: the stock trades roughly 2% above its 50-day moving average, a level that could act as near-term support.
The bear case, however, points to the twelve-month horizon. The shares have lost 12.60% over that period and sit nearly 4% below the 200-day average — a sign the longer-term trend has not yet turned. The secondary source puts that gap at 2.17%, reflecting the recent bounce. Either way, the stock has yet to reclaim the technical ground lost over the past year.
Analyst reactions have been measured. JPMorgan trimmed its price target on July 27 from €40 to €38 but kept an "Overweight" rating. The DZ Bank followed a day later, lowering its fair value from €37 to €35 while maintaining a "Buy" recommendation. Both cuts were more moderate than some had feared — a signal that the fundamental case remains broadly intact.
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The Numbers That Will Settle It
Thursday's report, due around 7:00 am and accompanied by an investor webcast, will be judged less on the headline EPS figure than on management's commentary around US margins for the second half. The 52-week low of €23.54 stands as the key downside marker if costs of customer acquisition are rising or margins are compressing.
Should the stock hold above the 50-day average, stabilization in the current range is plausible. A miss on free cash flow or a downward revision to full-year guidance, however, would likely push the 200-day average further out of reach. And with the merger story no longer available as a speculative catalyst, the satellite competition narrative — and management's response to it — may well determine the near-term direction more than any single line item in the financial statements.
