Evonik's Fork in the Road: A €22.15 Bid, a US Shopping List, and a State Government Saying No

Evonik finds itself weighing two very different paths at once — and the political weather in Düsseldorf is doing nothing to simplify the choice. On one side sits BASF's rejected €22.15-per-share approach; on the other, a long-running hunt for acquisitions outside Europe that has put US specialty chemicals group Ashland in the frame. Neither route comes with a confirmed price tag, and neither has the blessing of the company's key stakeholders.

North Rhine-Westphalia's economy minister, Mona Neubaur, told the state parliament on 14 October that her government opposes the BASF takeover, framing the position around preserving jobs and the industrial site. That is a political stance, not a verdict on valuation — and it sits alongside, rather than in place of, the commercial questions that will ultimately decide the outcome.

Guarantees That Answer Only Half the Question

BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth has been making the case for a combination directly. In a video message reported by Reuters, he pledged no compulsory redundancies through 2032, promised to leave collective agreements and social partnerships untouched, and said Essen and North Rhine-Westphalia would remain important locations.

Those commitments speak squarely to the concerns Neubaur raised. They do not, however, convert into political approval — and they certainly do not amount to a deal between the two companies. Job protection is one matter; the desired corporate structure is another, and the state government has made its view on the latter plain.

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The RAG-Stiftung, for its part, has kept its cards close. Its board of trustees was briefed on 9 October about BASF's interest, according to Handelsblatt, but declined to take a position, directing the companies toward bilateral talks. That silence is neither a yes nor a no — a markedly different posture from Düsseldorf's explicit rejection.

A US Target That Predates the Bid

What tends to get lost in the takeover chatter is that Evonik's dealmaking ambitions run on a separate track. Handelsblatt reports the group has spent months scouting larger acquisitions outside Europe, with Ashland as a candidate, and has enlisted Perella Weinberg Partners and JPMorgan to help identify targets. No purchase decision has been made; Evonik and the banks declined to comment.

Timing matters here. The review began before BASF's interest became public, and sources inside the company describe it as no defensive maneuver. For investors, that sequencing is the point: the Ashland idea reflects an independent strategic agenda rather than a reaction to the suitor at the door.

Strategically, the fit is plausible. Ashland's cosmetics ingredients and specialty additives would slot into Evonik's portfolio, and a deal could reduce the group's reliance on the European market. The logic is clear enough — what remains unanswered is the price at which that logic would actually pay off for shareholders.

The Risks on Both Sides of the Ledger

Ashland's rising share price is flagged as a major obstacle, and Advent, Apollo and Carlyle have reportedly made contact as well. Ashland is hunting for a buyer under pressure from Ancora, and competing interest could narrow Evonik's room for a bargain. Whether a genuine bidding contest materializes is an open question.

Set against that is the €22.15 per share BASF offer Evonik has already dismissed as too low. That figure is a negotiating anchor, not a guaranteed payout. Both paths deserve to be measured by the same yardstick — economic value for shareholders, rather than strategic scale or independence for its own sake.

A well-priced acquisition could strengthen the case for going it alone, giving Evonik a concrete industrial rationale and a less Europe-centric footprint. Yet the earlier start of the review only supports the reading that this is a long-held strategic idea; it proves neither the attractiveness of a future purchase price nor the success of any combination.

On the BASF side, too, there is an upside scenario. Press reports suggest a higher offer could follow a look at Evonik's books — an unconfirmed possibility. Should BASF actually raise its bid, investors would have to weigh the improved terms against the prospects of a standalone Evonik, including a possible US purchase. A higher bid only becomes meaningful once it is on the table.

Why a Big Deal Could Shut Both Doors

The counterargument is straightforward: a strategically sensible acquisition can still be economically unattractive. If the price for Ashland climbs too far, Evonik would pay away the hoped-for benefit at the moment of purchase. The presence of other interested parties makes that risk real without settling the question in advance.

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A larger Evonik acquisition could also complicate a BASF takeover — and that would not automatically create value. In the unfavorable scenario, one transaction becomes harder while the other is only achievable on unconvincing terms. Investors should not mistake a tougher path for BASF as an economic gain.

Kamieth has said he is open to talks but not at any price, and a combination would raise antitrust questions on top of valuation. His pledge to honor Evonik's protection against compulsory redundancies through 2032 addresses employment concerns; it does not substitute for a commercial agreement between the companies.

What Would Actually Move the Needle

As long as Evonik is merely examining Ashland, the US move remains a strategic option rather than a committed deployment of capital. Concrete terms would be the first real test of the industrial case against an actual price — and if that price comes in too high, the argument for the deal weakens.

Conversely, a credible higher BASF offer could reshuffle the comparison, with conditions and deliverability mattering as much as the headline amount. The signals exchanged so far allow no firm conclusion about a deal. The next genuine catalyst would be a confirmed refinement of either plan: purchase terms for Ashland, or a revised BASF bid. No date for either has been confirmed.

Until then, the news flow argues for keeping negotiating possibilities separate from hard transaction values. What counts is not which path makes headlines first, but which one can create value for Evonik shareholders on terms that add up.

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