Evonik's Two Doors: BASF's €24 Bid and the Ashland Option Investors Can't Bank Yet
Published on 10/25/2026 at 15:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik shareholders now face a valuation question with two moving parts, and neither is settled. On one side sits a reported €24-per-share offer from BASF that would value the specialty chemicals group at roughly €11.18 billion. On the other sits an early-stage review of a possible acquisition of Ashland — a growth path in which Evonik would be the buyer rather than the target.
The stock added 3.4% on Friday after Reuters reported the sweetened BASF bid. That gain reflects hope attached to a single report, not a signed deal. BASF, Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung all declined to comment, and the offer has not been confirmed by any of the companies involved.
Price Is Only the Opening Question
A higher number changes the financial incentive. It does not answer who is willing to talk, or whether the controlling owner will say yes. According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the decisive voice belongs to the RAG-Stiftung as Evonik's main shareholder — meaning BASF must win backing on jobs and sites, not just on valuation.
Evonik rejected the earlier, lower approach in September and, per that report, has so far shown no willingness to enter talks. BASF raised its offer afterward. No agreement has followed, and the refusal on one side and the foundation's stance on the other remain separate obstacles.
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Kamieth's Concessions Sketch the Shape of a Deal
BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth is trying to calm political and workforce concerns. In a company video released Thursday, he said BASF would take over Evonik's existing site agreements and rule out compulsory redundancies through at least 2032. Collective bargaining agreements and co-determination would stay in place. At least one board-level function would remain in Essen or elsewhere in North Rhine-Westphalia, and BASF would keep running the Marl and Wesseling chemical parks.
Those pledges describe how a combination might be structured. They do not substitute for approval from Evonik or its anchor owner. Kamieth was equally direct about the limit on his own side: BASF is open to talks but will not pursue a merger "at any price."
A Second Track Runs Through Ashland
While the takeover question simmers, the Handelsblatt reported Friday that Evonik has spent months examining larger acquisitions outside Europe, with Ashland among the candidates. The process is at an early stage and completion is uncertain. Evonik does not comment on market rumors as a matter of policy.
The two paths should be weighed separately. A review of a purchase proves neither that it will happen nor that Evonik has turned its back on BASF. Nor can an early-stage acquisition study be added to the bid like a second, already-secured source of value. Both remain possibilities whose relationship to each other is undecided.
What Would Actually Move the Story
The positive case starts with clarity. If the BASF offer is confirmed and talks begin, the valuation could anchor to a transaction genuinely in motion — Reuters describes the raised bid as an attempt to get negotiations started. A more concrete Ashland review, complete with an economic rationale and deal terms, would show which alternative Evonik is charting for itself. A favorable outcome does not require both to proceed; it requires a coherent strategy to emerge from the options.
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The risk runs the other way. Friday's share-price advance was tied to the report of a higher bid, so a failure to confirm it could undercut that support. Ashland offers no guaranteed counterweight either: if Evonik walks away from that path, no agreed transaction will have collapsed, yet investors may still lose a strategic option they had counted on. A completed acquisition would not automatically be good news, either — shareholders would have to judge its terms and industrial logic.
The Next Hard Data Point
Until either option is confirmed, the read-across depends on how much verification each has. The next scheduled event is the Q3 2026 quarterly report on 03.11.2026, a fixed checkpoint for operating performance. No decision on BASF or Ashland has been announced alongside it.
That leaves a clean division of labor for investors: the quarterly figures can sharpen the economic basis of the valuation, while the strategic direction will be set only by confirmed steps — not by the number of transactions in play.
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