Evonik's Two Suitors: A $22.15 Bid, a US Acquisition Target, and a 2028 Horizon
Published on 10/22/2026 at 19:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Evonik shareholders now have two very different valuation questions to weigh at once. On one side sits BASF's rejected €22.15-per-share approach; on the other, a months-old internal review that has Evonik eyeing the US specialty chemicals group Ashland. Neither path carries a confirmed price tag, and neither has produced a signed deal.
BASF chief executive Markus Kamieth used a video message to press his case, offering guarantees on sites and jobs, according to a Reuters report. The gesture speaks directly to the most sensitive point of any combination — what happens to plants and employees — but it amounts to public advocacy, not consent from Evonik, which turned down the first non-binding offer. Nor did it move the stock: Evonik shares traded at €20.70, without any immediate lift from Kamieth's push. Reuters linked the takeover message to temporary losses in the share price, though that alone does not establish how investors judge the guarantees on offer.
A Long Road and a Regional Veto
The timeline is anything but short. Handelsblatt reported Monday, citing company circles, that BASF is sticking with its plans despite the rebuff, but that a completion is not expected before the end of 2028 at the earliest — an expectation, not a binding date.
Political resistance adds another layer. On 14 October, North Rhine-Westphalia's economy minister, Mona Neubaur, set the state government against a takeover on the floor of the state parliament. According to a WDR report, she left open precisely what measures the state could deploy to block the deal. The site and job guarantees Kamieth is dangling touch on themes that matter to that political assessment, yet they do nothing to shift NRW's rejection. Investors should therefore treat political positioning and potential intervention powers as two separate considerations.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
The Ashland Review That Predates BASF
Running alongside the takeover drama is Evonik's own shopping list. Handelsblatt reports the group has spent months examining larger acquisitions outside Europe, with Ashland in its sights, and has enlisted Perella Weinberg Partners and JPMorgan to scout for targets. No purchase decision follows from that mandate. Evonik and the banks declined to comment.
Timing matters here. The review began before BASF's interest became public, and sources inside the company describe it as no defensive maneuver. That sequencing matters for shareholders: the potential US deal cannot simply be read as a reaction to BASF. It reflects an independent strategic approach whose economic viability may now carry more weight.
Strategically, the fit is plausible — Ashland would complement Evonik's cosmetics ingredients and specialty additives portfolio, and an acquisition could reduce dependence on the European market. What that logic does not answer is the valuation question: at what price would the benefit be attractive to Evonik shareholders?
Price Is the Common Denominator
The rising Ashland share price is seen as a major risk, the report notes. Advent, Apollo and Carlyle have also made contact, and Ashland is hunting for a buyer under pressure from Ancora. More interested parties could narrow the room for a bargain, though whether a genuine bidding contest emerges remains open.
Set against that is BASF's €22.15-per-share offer, which Evonik dismissed as too low. The figure is a negotiating anchor, not a secured payout. Both routes deserve the same yardstick: economic value for shareholders, not strategic scale or independence for its own sake.
The bull case requires Evonik to land Ashland on sustainable terms, with the portfolio overlaps supplying a concrete industrial rationale and lower European exposure reinforcing the case for going it alone. The early start of the review supports reading it as a long-pursued strategic idea — but it proves neither the attractiveness of a later purchase price nor the success of any combination. On the BASF side, media reports suggest a higher offer could follow a look at the books. That remains unconfirmed; a better bid would only become a solid reference point once it actually exists.
When a Good Deal Becomes a Bad One
The counterargument is blunt: a strategically fitting acquisition can still be economically unattractive. If the price for Ashland climbs too far, Evonik could pay away the hoped-for benefit at the moment of purchase. Rival interest makes that risk relevant without preordaining an expensive outcome. A larger Evonik acquisition could also complicate a BASF takeover — which would not automatically create value. In the unfavorable scenario, one transaction gets harder while the other is only reachable on unconvincing terms. A tougher path for BASF should not be equated with an economic advantage.
Evonik at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Kamieth has said he is open to talks but not at any price, and a combination would raise antitrust questions on top of valuation. His pledge to respect Evonik's protection against compulsory redundancies through 2032 addresses employment concerns; it does not substitute for a commercial agreement between the companies.
November as the Next Hard Data Point
While the deal debate swirls, one confirmed date stands out: Evonik publishes third-quarter 2026 results on 3 November. That gives investors a fresh basis for judging the company itself.
Until then, the news flow argues for separating negotiating possibilities from hard transaction values. Concrete terms for Ashland, or a revised BASF offer, would be the next real catalyst — no date for either is confirmed. What counts is not which path makes headlines first, but which can create value for Evonik shareholders on terms that hold up to scrutiny.
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