Evonik Shareholders Weigh a 21-Euro Bird in Hand Against a 25-Euro Bid That Hinges on the Books
Published on 10/15/2026 at 15:02 | Editorial boerse-global.de
BASF's pursuit of Evonik has turned the specialty chemicals maker into one of the most closely watched names on the German equity market, and the stock's next move now rests on a single, deceptively simple question: will Evonik's management open its books?
That issue sits at the heart of a standoff that began on 25 September, when Evonik confirmed it had received a first non-binding offer for all of its shares — a bid of 22.15 euros per share that the Essen-based group promptly rejected as too low. At that time, Evonik also made clear that no talks were underway. The earlier approach, valued at roughly ten billion euros, had met the same fate.
Due Diligence Emerges as the Deal's Pressure Point
According to media reports citing people familiar with the matter, BASF has tied any increase to its offer to prior access to Evonik's accounts. Without a look inside the books, a meaningful bump from the Ludwigshafen-based buyer is difficult to justify. No binding new bid has been tabled so far.
The stance of the RAG Foundation, Evonik's largest shareholder, carries comparable weight. Its board of trustees was briefed on BASF's interest but declined to take a position, leaving the two companies to negotiate bilaterally. As Handelsblatt reported, the foundation stopped short of an explicit commitment to Evonik's continued independence — a silence that leaves the door ajar in either direction.
Market participants, meanwhile, have their own arithmetic. Investors and analysts are pencilling in a potential purchase price of around 25 euros per Evonik share, a level that would hand holders a hefty premium from the current 21.00 euros if BASF chooses to close the gap.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Evonik?
Düsseldorf Says Nein — But Not to Everything
Politics has added a further layer to the equation. North Rhine-Westphalia's state parliament rejected a motion from the SPD caucus calling for stronger state involvement and a possible government stake in the Essen-based group. Even so, the state government remains cool toward the Ludwigshafen plans. Economy Minister Mona Neubaur has come out against a BASF takeover, with DĂĽsseldorf's stated aim being to keep research, development, administration and the group headquarters anchored in North Rhine-Westphalia.
BASF has tried to soften that resistance. Reuters reported that the DAX-listed group is prepared to contractually underwrite Evonik's existing site and employment guarantees, a commitment that would rule out compulsory redundancies in Germany through 2032. Such pledges could blunt political and union opposition and give Evonik's executive board room to enter negotiations and open a due diligence process.
Two Analysts, Two Cautious Targets
Not everyone is chasing the deal story higher. Berenberg's Sebastian Bray upgraded the stock from "Sell" to "Hold" on 5 October and lifted his price target to 20 euros from 15.50 euros, citing BASF's takeover interest as a support for the share price. A day later, Parmantier & Cie. also moved to "Hold," with a target of 20.50 euros.
Both levels reflect the fundamental valuation many experts consider appropriate absent a transaction. Strip out the takeover premium and the stock would have to be measured against operating earnings once more — a sobering prospect given that the shares have climbed 57 percent since the start of the year, meaning much of the rally is built directly on M&A speculation.
A Pause Beneath the High
The stock took a breather after its recent run, slipping 1.7 percent to close at 21.10 euros, just below the 52-week high of 21.84 euros touched a day earlier. As long as the prospect of a sweetened offer lingers, the shares look likely to hold near that peak. Should talks collapse or the RAG Foundation wield a veto, a swift retreat toward the fundamental targets around 20 euros becomes the risk.
The next hard catalyst on the calendar is Evonik's third-quarter report, scheduled for 3 November 2026. That release will give investors their clearest read yet on how sturdy the underlying business really is. Until then, the share price will largely take its cue from whether BASF and Evonik decide to sit down at the table.
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