Glencore Balances Portfolio Review With New Nickel Offtake as Copper Output Lags

Glencore is weighing the sale of stakes in copper-cobalt assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and zinc-gold assets in Kazakhstan, with decisions expected in early 2027, according to media reports. CEO Gary Nagle is behind the review, though no transaction has been agreed and no proceeds are secured — a distinction that matters for anyone reading strategic options as done deals.

At the same time, the company has tied itself to a new nickel project in Brazil. Centaurus Metals announced binding offtake agreements for its Jaguar nickel project, under which Glencore AG and CNGR will each take at least 20,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate per year. The five-year pacts are due to start in the first half of 2029. Both companies also committed to equity investments of US$20 million each in Centaurus, with the second tranche subject to conditions — a funding pledge that should not be mistaken for cash already paid in.

Copper misses the mark

The production report published today gives the market its next operational reading, and the numbers fell short of expectations. Glencore produced 201,600 tonnes of copper in the third quarter of 2026, which AJ Bell estimates was 4.0% below market consensus. The stock slipped 0.9% on the day as confirmation of full-year guidance failed to win investors over.

Output is expected to pick up in the final quarter, helped by better ore grades and higher recoveries at Collahuasi — an improvement that looms large for hitting the annual target. The unchanged 2026 copper forecast stands at 810,000–870,000 tonnes, though Glencore expects to land at the bottom of that range.

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The picture is split. Production is growing year on year even as the near-term trend trails expectations. Nagle, cited by Mining Journal, insisted the key assets are largely running in line with plan. Over the first nine months of 2026, copper output reached 598,600 tonnes, 3% above the prior-year period — a gain that widens to 12% once the closure of Mount Isa and the sale of the Kidd mine are stripped out.

Cobalt slumps, coal recovers

Cobalt shows the sharpest decline: first-nine-month output fell 52% to 13,700 tonnes, which Glencore attributes to export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Zinc was held back by Lady Loretta and lower ore grades at Antamina, among other factors.

Coking coal offered some relief, with third-quarter production of 8.0 million tonnes, up 14% on the previous quarter. Even so, Glencore expects full-year coking coal output at the low end of its target range. Zinc and thermal coal are seen at the top of their respective guidance, while nickel should come in around the middle.

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Marketing provides the counterweight

The marketing division remains the bright spot. Glencore expects an adjusted operating result of more than US$5 billion from marketing in 2026, after US$3.3 billion in the first half. That forecast sits alongside the divestment review but is not a reported annual result.

For investors, two questions now dominate: whether Collahuasi delivers the anticipated production increase, and whether the lofty marketing target is met. The annual goals hold — but for copper and coking coal, planning is explicitly pointed at the lower bounds.

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