Gold Grinds Higher as Cheaper Crude Offers Cover From a Hawkish Fed
Published on 11/09/2026 at 10:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold is clawing back some of Friday's losses, but the rebound is being underwritten by an unlikely ally: the oil market. Softer crude prices are easing inflation expectations, and that in turn is taking some heat off the metal after a payrolls report that landed far above forecasts.
The relief is conditional, though. Trump's remarks that fresh strikes on Iran are highly unlikely provided talks keep advancing knocked crude lower at the open, giving gold a geopolitical tailwind through the inflation channel. Reuters also reports attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, a reminder that any renewed disruption to shipping lanes could push energy prices back up and blunt the benefit. The support, in other words, rests on diplomacy holding.
Payrolls Raise the Bar
Friday's employment data set the tone for the week. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, against expectations of just 65,000 in a Reuters poll — a reading more than twice as strong as economists had pencilled in. According to Reuters, the report kept expectations of prolonged high US rates firmly in place, propping up both the dollar and Treasury yields. For bullion, those are headwinds that persist as long as the market sees no reason to scale back its rate assumptions.
Working the other way, falling oil prices are tempering inflation worries, while softer yields and a weaker dollar are adding to the recovery. Two opposing forces are thus meeting in the gold market at once: relief on the energy front and stubborn strength in the labour market. Christoph Sax of VZ attributes the bounce to the weaker dollar in the wake of the US midterm elections, though he cautions the advance may not last — making the currency yet another variable to watch.
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Goldman Cuts Its Sights
How forcefully the shifted rate outlook is feeding through to forecasts is visible at Goldman Sachs, which trimmed its gold targets. The bank now sees $4,650 an ounce, down from its earlier projection, citing the Fed's more restrictive stance in recent months, which it says is weighing on investor positioning. The revision targets precisely the monetary-policy drag that remains relevant even after today's gains.
For end-2027, Goldman also lowered its call to $4,800 from $5,400 an ounce. The higher figure for the following year still signals room for recovery in the bank's view — just at a lower expected price level.
Official Buying Provides the Counterweight
Offsetting the rate burden is hefty demand from the official sector. World Gold Council figures show central banks bought a net 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2026, up 42% from the same period a year earlier. Inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds lent further support, though weakness in jewellery demand shows the backing is unevenly spread across buyer groups. Institutional purchases are carrying the market, while the near-term price remains more tightly tethered to the dollar and rate expectations.
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The Data Run
The next concrete test arrives on 10 November at 08:30 US Eastern time with the October US consumer price index. A Bloomberg survey points to a 0.3% monthly increase, with the core rate at 0.2% — forecasts, not outcomes. US producer prices follow on 13 November, alongside remarks from several Fed officials. A soft inflation print would give the recovery room to extend; a hot one would reinforce the very rate pressure that prompted Goldman to mark down its targets.
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