Gold Holds Near $4,334 as Record ETF Inflows Offset Fed Rate Fears
Published on 09/22/2026 at 17:50 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Bullion traded almost flat on Tuesday, with spot gold quoted at $4,334.02 per fine ounce, down 0.1% on the day after Monday's close of $4,340.72. The muted session caps a stretch in which two powerful institutional forces — relentless central bank buying and record ETF inflows — have kept the metal pinned near historic highs despite mounting headwinds from U.S. monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs nudged its near-term valuation lower on Monday, trimming its fair-value estimate for the metal to $4,650 per ounce by the end of 2026, according to media reports. The investment bank left its longer-range view untouched, still projecting $5,400 per ounce for year-end 2027.
Central Banks Extend Their Buying Streak
Sovereign institutions remain the market's most dependable bid. The People's Bank of China added another 20 tonnes last month, stretching its uninterrupted purchasing run to 21 consecutive months. Poland chipped in with net purchases of 8 tonnes over the same period.
That appetite shows little sign of fading. A World Gold Council survey of monetary authorities found that 89% expect global gold reserves to rise over the next twelve months, while 45% intend to actively build their own holdings. Reserve diversification remains the primary motivation driving the strategy, and unlike short-term traders who react to rate signals, central banks are playing a longer game.
The pace has nonetheless cooled from last year's exceptional levels. Central bank purchases worldwide totaled roughly 130 tonnes from January through July, down from about 160 tonnes in the comparable period a year earlier.
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ETF Stockpiles Set a Fresh Benchmark
Private investors have been just as eager. Global gold-backed ETFs absorbed $18 billion in August, lifting worldwide holdings by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes. Assets under management in these products climbed 16% to $615 billion over the same stretch.
Momentum carried into September. Preliminary World Gold Council data show $3.92 billion flowing into gold ETFs during the trading week through September 4, adding 28.9 tonnes to global stockpiles.
Asia's Physical Markets Diverge
Demand across Asia's key bullion hubs painted a mixed picture. Indian physical investment held steady in August even as the jewelry trade wilted under elevated prices. One standout: digitally backed gold purchases in India surged 110% year-on-year.
China moved the other way. Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell 22% month-on-month in August to 62 tonnes, a 27% decline versus the same month last year.
Rate Expectations Keep a Lid on Prices
Macro forces are pulling in the opposite direction. Inflation readings have recently stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates, according to media reports — a prospect that raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and tends to dampen Western financial investors' enthusiasm.
Even so, spot prices have refused to buckle. The metal remains well below its 52-week high of $5,598.58 per ounce, yet steady official-sector accumulation has so far prevented any deeper pullback, leaving gold caught between hawkish rate bets and an unshakeable institutional floor.
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