Gold Rebounds 2.4% as Dollar Softens, but WGC Data Expose a Divided Buyer Base
Published on 11/04/2026 at 09:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold climbed 2.4% on Wednesday as a weaker US dollar and falling Treasury yields reversed the pressures that had weighed on bullion a day earlier. The spot price settled at $4,022.29 an ounce, recovering ground lost when a firmer dollar and rising yields pushed the metal lower.
The turn in currency and bond markets did the heavy lifting. Reuters linked the dollar's retreat to early Democratic gains in the US midterm elections, while nominal and real Treasury yields both fell sharply. Safe-haven demand tied to potential political confrontations in the US and ongoing Iran-US tensions added further support, according to the agency.
A Macro Lifeline, Not a Demand Revival
That rebound comes with a caveat: it reflects an easier financial backdrop rather than a broad pickup in physical buying. The World Gold Council's demand report, published a day earlier, painted a far more uneven picture beneath the surface.
Central banks and gold-backed funds are propping up the market. Bar and coin demand, by contrast, is fading in the second half of the year, Reuters noted. The WGC cut its 2026 forecast for growth in global gold investment demand to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes previously, even as it raised its estimate for central bank purchases. In India, high prices are expected to weigh on jewellery sales and dampen investment appetite.
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Official-sector buying remains the market's anchor. Net central bank purchases came in at 321 tonnes, up 42% year on year, with cumulative buying since January reaching 675 tonnes. Gold ETFs drew net inflows of 211 tonnes, lifting their holdings to a record 4,256 tonnes. Bar and coin demand, however, dropped 19%.
Rate Expectations Still Bite
The tug-of-war between institutional buying and monetary policy has been visible for weeks. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged on Thursday, and gold investors subsequently weighed the policy signals while awaiting US inflation data. Higher oil prices and persistent inflation worries had already reinforced expectations of possible US rate hikes on Friday, Reuters reported.
A Reuters poll from October 27 captured the drag. The median forecast for gold in 2026 stood at $4,495 an ounce, down from $4,509 three months earlier. Analysts and traders cited high US yields, a strong dollar and prolonged elevated rates as headwinds — a downgrade that spoke to tighter financial conditions rather than weakness in any single demand segment.
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Jobs Data in the Crosshairs
Attention now shifts to US labour market figures due later this week, which gold investors hope will shed light on the Fed's policy path, according to Reuters.
Wednesday's advance, then, rests on a more favourable dollar and yield environment plus added hedging demand. Softer expectations for parts of the investment complex cap what the session's gain can prove: relief in financial markets, not a uniform upswing in gold demand. The metal at $4,022.29 sits between strong buying from select official and fund buyers and the persistent pull of rate expectations — and a durable reading has to hold both forces in view.
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