Gold's Forecast Maze: LBMA Lifts Its Sights While Private Buyers in Beijing Step Back
Published on 08/15/2026 at 13:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gold market is sending mixed signals that have even the most seasoned precious metals analysts scrambling to recalibrate. On one hand, the London Bullion Market Association has just raised its year-end target to $4,500 per ounce, reflecting a collective acknowledgment that the metal keeps outperforming expectations. On the other, physical demand in China's capital is drying up, with investment bar buyers in Beijing down roughly 60 percent.
That tension — between a bullish institutional outlook and softening retail appetite — is now the defining feature of a market that has spent months consolidating after a spectacular run.
Forecasts Move Higher, Then Split
The LBMA's updated survey, based on input from 16 leading precious metals experts, now pencils in an average gold price of $4,500 by the close of 2026. That marks a meaningful upward revision from where forecasts stood at the start of the year. The adjustment stems from a humbling pattern: both 2024 and 2025 saw actual prices land well above analyst expectations. Last year's average of $3,432 came in roughly 25 percent higher than projected.
Gold's resilience in the face of elevated interest rates has been the key surprise. Structural demand remains robust, forcing the forecasting community to chase the market higher rather than the other way around.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Yet beneath that consensus lies considerable disagreement. Five major international banks have actually trimmed their gold forecasts in recent weeks. Commerzbank now sees $4,800 by year-end 2026, while Citi is more cautious, calling for $4,300 on a zero-to-three-month horizon. JPMorgan holds firm at an average of $5,243 for the year, Morgan Stanley expects $5,200 in the second half, and ANZ remains the most bullish of the group at $5,600. That wide dispersion underscores just how divided the experts are on where the metal heads next.
A Tale of Two Demand Curves
The more cautious bank forecasts find support in what's happening on the ground in China. Gold jewelry prices in Beijing now range from 1,340 to 1,370 yuan per gram — roughly 300 yuan below levels seen at the start of the year. The pullback in private buying follows months of steep gains and suggests that household investors are balking at current price levels.
Central banks, however, are telling a different story. China's central bank added 32 million ounces to its reserves in May, marking the 19th consecutive month of purchases. Gold now accounts for 8.8 percent of the country's official reserves. The trend extends well beyond Beijing: according to a European Central Bank report from June, gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the largest component of global official reserves, representing 27 percent versus 22 percent for US government debt.
Geopolitics Keeps the Risk Premium Alive
Adding to the mix, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep traders on edge. US President Trump has said Washington would declare the waterway US territory following a victory over Iran, while Tehran asserts its own control over the strategic passage. Data from Kpler shows just two ships transited the strait on Friday, and oil prices responded with sharp gains, amplifying nervousness across commodity markets.
The geopolitical backdrop also includes stalled US-Iran negotiations and uncertainty over shipping safety in the region. Washington has signaled it will intensify economic pressure on Tehran in the coming week — a development that historically pushes investors toward safe-haven assets.
Where the Market Stands
Gold closed Friday at $4,432 per ounce, up 0.6 percent on the day. Over the past month, the metal has gained 9 percent — a brisk pace for an asset typically associated with measured moves. Still, the current price sits roughly 21 percent below the all-time high of $5,586.20 reached in January 2026.
Gold at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The technical picture remains mixed. The metal trades 6.3 percent above its 50-day moving average of $4,170.72 but remains 2.4 percent below the 200-day average of $4,544.58. After breaking out of a medium-term downtrend in early August, gold has entered a consolidation phase — a pause that chart watchers generally regard as healthy digestion of the sharp gains posted in the first half of the month.
Supporting the bull case on the macro front, July inflation data came in moderate, fueling expectations that the Federal Reserve has reached its peak rate. Weaker-than-expected retail sales figures at the end of the week reinforced the narrative of a cooling US economy, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive relative to bonds.
The week ahead brings two potential catalysts into focus: the promised escalation of US sanctions policy toward Iran and the question of whether gold can resume its climb toward the LBMA's $4,500 target after the recent consolidation. For now, the market finds itself caught between structural central bank demand, fading private buying in China, and a geopolitical risk premium that shows no signs of dissipating — a combination that likely keeps the wide range of bank forecasts intact for some time.
Ad
Gold Stock: New Analysis - 15 August
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
