Gold's Quiet Repricing: Central Banks Outpace Treasuries as ETF Money Returns
Published on 09/20/2026 at 07:40 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold finished Friday at USD 4,382.82 an ounce, up 0.9% on the day, extending a 2.8% advance booked since the Federal Reserve's policy meeting the previous Wednesday. The gain looks modest next to the metal's 52-week high of USD 5,598.58 — and it sits roughly 22% below the record touched at the end of January. Yet beneath the price chart, the ownership structure of the market is shifting in ways that have little to do with the daily tape.
A Reserve Asset Overtakes Treasuries
The most consequential change is happening inside central bank vaults. According to a European Central Bank report, gold accounted for 27% of global currency reserves at the end of 2025, edging past holdings of US government bonds to become the single largest reserve asset class. That milestone reflects a deliberate, years-long reallocation by monetary authorities rather than a trading fad.
China is leading the accumulation. The People's Bank of China added a little over 20 tonnes in August, marking its 22nd consecutive month of purchases. Worldwide, central banks have been buying roughly 91 tonnes a month of late — a pace that dwarfs the pre-2022 average of just 17 tonnes monthly. Goldman Sachs expects that run rate to moderate but remain historically elevated, forecasting average purchases of 60 tonnes per month across 2026 and 2027.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
The Dutch Are Moving Their Bars
Storage geography tells its own story about how officials view risk. Between March and August, the Dutch central bank shifted 86 tonnes of gold from New York and Ottawa to London, lifting the share of its holdings kept in the British capital to 32.1%.
Private capital is moving in the same direction. Gold-backed ETFs worldwide took in USD 18 billion in August — the second-largest monthly inflow on record — pushing total assets under management in these products to USD 615 billion. The character of that money has changed: where tactical profit-taking once drove flows, hedging against geopolitical disruption now dominates.
Goldman Keeps Its Long Game
Goldman Sachs strategist Lina Thomas trimmed her fair-value estimate for the end of 2026 to USD 4,650 an ounce, while leaving the longer-dated target untouched at USD 5,400 for the end of 2027. The bank's caution on nearer-term levels stems from monetary policy: a hawkish stance among central banks caps how much speculative capital can chase the metal, and the yield-free nature of bullion leaves it exposed when rates stay higher for longer.
That headwind did knock gold briefly off balance, but the dip was short-lived. Structural demand from reserve managers and private wealth allocators has repeatedly absorbed sell-offs, and with central banks still adding metal at a multiple of their historical pace, that bid shows few signs of thinning.
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