Goldman Lifts SAP Target to €258 as AI Guardrails Take Shape
Published on 10/26/2026 at 14:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs raised its price target on SAP from €230 to €258 on Friday while reaffirming its buy rating, with analyst Mohammed Moawalla pointing to the strength of the near-term cloud order book as the driving force behind the upgrade.
At the heart of Moawalla's case is the Current Cloud Backlog — the contracted portion of SAP's cloud business that has yet to be recognized as revenue. It is a forward-looking gauge rather than booked turnover, and its expansion gives investors a read on business still to come.
The reported quarter offered plenty of momentum to support that view. Cloud revenue climbed 26%, sales of the Cloud ERP Suite advanced 29%, and group revenue rose 13% — meaning the cloud unit outpaced the company as a whole. That gap is precisely what underpins Goldman's more bullish stance.
Margins and Guidance Muddy the Picture
Operating profit, measured on both IFRS and Non-IFRS bases, grew 18%. SAP also refreshed its outlook for 2026 cloud revenue and for combined cloud and software revenue. What it did not do was lift its earnings forecast — a decision that, according to a dpa-AFX report, weighed on the stock on Thursday after early gains. References to economic headwinds and possible cost pressures added to the drag, alongside a weak broader market.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
Those competing signals explain why the analyst community remains split. Several research houses lifted their targets on Thursday into a range of €235 to €250. DZ Bank, by contrast, nudged its fair value up to €170 while sticking with a sell recommendation — a reminder that a higher target does not automatically translate into a positive rating.
AI Execution Becomes the Second Front
Running parallel to the cloud debate is SAP's push to build the plumbing for AI agents in business processes. The company is integrating NVIDIA OpenShell into the SAP Business AI Platform and contributing to the OpenShell codebase itself, so the partnership goes beyond simply licensing outside technology.
The emphasis falls on secure, controllable and auditable execution of agents — the conditions under which they operate, rather than a fresh batch of features. No quantified earnings contribution can be derived from the arrangement; it is a technological step first, and its economic value will depend on how such building blocks become usable offerings for customers.
SAP has laid out complementary plans elsewhere. On 20 October it unveiled AI functions for Ariba, Fieldglass and Concur, including the integration of Moody's supplier risk data into SAP Ariba and a procurement-coordination solution developed with ORO Labs. Those projects operate on different levels — risk data broadens the information base, ORO Labs targets process orchestration, and the NVIDIA tie-up concerns execution — but together they sketch a deeper embedding of AI in business workflows. General availability for the Moody's functions is expected in the fourth quarter of 2026.
SAP at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
SAP also offers an AI-powered Work Intelligence platform, and the company has agreed a further expansion of its technology portfolio; no completion of an acquisition should be inferred from that. The next fixed date on the calendar is SAP TechEd Berlin, with a virtual edition, running 27–29 October 2026.
For investors, the two storylines converge on the same test. Technical integration, announced availability and actual financial contribution are distinct stages, and the OpenShell collaboration only clarifies the first. Whether SAP can convert its cloud backlog and its AI groundwork into earnings is what will ultimately settle the argument between the bulls and DZ Bank.
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