Goldman Trims Gold Forecast Again as Central Bank Demand and Private Selling Pull in Opposite Directions
Published on 11/15/2026 at 14:51 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Goldman Sachs has lowered its gold price target for the second time in a month, cutting its end-2027 forecast to $4,650 per troy ounce from $4,800. The revision signals a more cautious view on private demand for the metal, even as the bank continues to count on central bank purchases as a long-term anchor.
The latest cut builds on an earlier downgrade driven by a more restrictive US monetary policy stance. Goldman had already reduced its end-2027 projection from $5,400 to $4,800, citing pressure on private investors as interest-bearing assets become more attractive relative to bullion. The new target therefore rests on an outlook that had already been scaled back once.
A Policy Path That Leaves Room for a Rebound
Goldman does not expect private buyers to abandon the market for good. Its scenario pairs softer demand in the near term with a recovery later, hinging on the assumed path of Federal Reserve policy. After a widely expected US rate hike in December, the bank sees a further 25-basis-point move in March 2027, with the first rate cuts arriving in December 2027. That easing could revive private appetite for gold.
Near-term risks run in the other direction. Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch has flagged the possibility of a second wave of selling through gold ETFs: weak prices could push investors to exit, triggering additional declines. Fritsch's warning describes a risk scenario rather than confirmed fund outflows.
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Friday's close underlined how little ground the market has recovered. The spot price stood at $3,876.13 per troy ounce, offering no all-clear against the danger of further selling that Fritsch describes. The gap between the two assessments is largely a matter of horizon. Goldman sketches a demand trajectory stretching to a later phase of monetary easing, while Fritsch focuses on a short-term feedback loop in which falling prices prompt sales that in turn weigh on the price.
Official-Sector Buying as the Counterweight
Against that backdrop, Goldman still sees central banks as a key offsetting force, with their purchases expected to underpin the long-term outlook. The bank singles out the People's Bank of China as a buyer. That demand base is the main reason the lower price targets should not be read as a fundamentally bearish long-term call.
For 2026 and 2027, Goldman projects average central bank purchases of 60 tonnes per month — a forecast that underscores its expectation of sustained institutional demand despite the more cautious price assumptions.
Oil and Rate Fears Compound the Pressure
The softer private-demand picture has been aggravated by macro forces. Higher oil prices weighed on gold on Friday as fading hopes for a Middle East de-escalation sharpened inflation and rate concerns. According to media reports, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US did not want a deal with Iran. Crude prices rose in response, intensifying worries about higher inflation and rising interest rates.
The geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East is therefore not acting as a support for gold in its own right; its effect runs through expectations for US monetary policy. The oil rally reinforced fears that further rate hikes may be needed. The move came on top of an already unfavourable backdrop: higher-than-expected US consumer prices and restrictive comments from Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday had strengthened the dollar and raised expectations of a US rate hike in December, according to Reuters.
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Physical Demand Sends Mixed Signals
Demand data offer no uniform counterweight either. Worldwide gold demand including over-the-counter transactions fell 1% year on year to 1,369 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, according to the World Gold Council. Behind that headline, the components diverged: central banks expanded their purchases while jewellery demand continued to shrink.
Official-sector buyers added 321 tonnes net, 42% more than in the same quarter a year earlier. That offset weaker jewellery demand but did not prevent an overall decline. Jewellery demand dropped 17% year on year to 313 tonnes in the third quarter of 2026 — the thirteenth consecutive quarterly decline, the World Gold Council said.
For investors, two forces are thus pulling against each other: possible selling by private investors and continued buying by central banks. Goldman's lowered target gives more weight to the drags than before. The prospect of central bank purchases alone is not enough to confirm a durable recovery — private selling pressure must also stop building.
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