Goldman Trims Gold Targets Through 2027 as Official Buyers Offset a Hawkish Fed
Published on 11/13/2026 at 10:41 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold edged higher on Tuesday, but the modest bounce does little to repair the damage from a bruising stretch that has left the metal tracking a weekly loss and sitting near its weakest level in more than a year.
Spot gold added 0.5% on the day, yet remains down 4.2% over the past seven sessions — a rebound that claws back only a fraction of the recent retreat. Tuesday's buying follows a sharp selloff that pushed prices to their lowest since October of last year.
Kelvin Wong, an analyst at OANDA, attributes the countermove to position adjustments after short-term indicators tipped into oversold territory. A pause in the previously vigorous dollar rally also gave bullion some breathing room. Even so, rising Treasury yields and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening are capping the recovery, meaning the fresh demand is running into a still-restrictive rate backdrop.
Oil and Inflation Keep the Pressure On
The broader case against gold rests on stubborn inflation. US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in October, ahead of the 0.3% consensus, and core inflation also came in hotter than forecast.
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Cheaper energy is nowhere in sight. President Trump's remark that the US does not need a deal with Iran has added upward pressure on oil, deepening inflation worries through the energy channel. As long as costlier crude reinforces bets on additional rate hikes, that link stays a drag on the metal. Fading hopes for a diplomatic resolution in the Middle East have amplified the effect.
On Monday, gold settled at $3,874.31 an ounce after a daily move of -2.8%, having at one point touched its lowest level since October of the prior year. Hawkish comments from Fed officials that day cemented market expectations of a December rate increase, while the dollar simultaneously climbed to a 19-month high — a combination that intensified the pressure.
Goldman Cuts Across Two Year-Ends
Goldman Sachs responded on November 7 to the Fed's more restrictive posture and its anticipated rate increases, lowering its price targets for the coming year-ends. The bank now sees gold at $4,150 an ounce by the end of 2026, down from $4,650 previously.
The revision extends beyond near-term market stress. Goldman also trimmed its expectation for the following year, citing the same rate environment: for the end of 2027, it cut its target to $4,800 an ounce from $5,400. Even so, the house retains a constructive longer-term view.
That optimism leans on central bank demand. According to the World Gold Council, central banks and other official institutions bought a net 321 tonnes of gold in the third quarter of 2026 — 42% more than in the same period a year earlier. The WGC reported the figures on November 3.
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The Next Tests
For December, market participants overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point Fed hike, with a larger 50-basis-point move also under consideration. Restrictive commentary from the central bank has reinforced those bets.
Tuesday's US producer price data offer the next read on inflation pressure. Any easing in rate expectations would be a welcome relief for gold, provided the figures create room for it. Further markers on the calendar include US retail sales on November 17 and the Fed minutes on November 18, with GDP and core PCE following on November 25.
Until oil prices, the dollar and Fed expectations loosen their grip, rallies of the kind seen Tuesday are likely to remain just that — a partial offset to the losses that came before.
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