Hensoldt's €10.4 Billion Backlog Fuels a Rebound — and a Raging Valuation Debate
Published on 08/05/2026 at 13:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The defence electronics group's shares have clawed their way back toward the €90 mark, recouping ground lost in the wake of a half-year report that left the market with an uncomfortable paradox: record demand, yet a margin that fell a whisker short of expectations.
By Wednesday's close, Hensoldt stock had advanced 2.35 percent to €89.62, extending a 30-day run that has added roughly 12 percent. The recovery follows a sharp dip triggered by the July 31 interim results, when investors zeroed in on the one metric that disappointed — the adjusted EBITDA margin — rather than the torrent of orders that came with it.
The Numbers That Split the Street
Operationally, the first half of 2026 was nothing short of spectacular. Order intake more than doubled to €2.81 billion, blowing past the roughly €1.23 billion that analysts had pencilled in. The backlog, meanwhile, crossed into double-digit territory for the first time, reaching €10.36 billion. Revenue climbed 23.6 percent to €1.17 billion, marginally ahead of consensus, and adjusted EBITDA improved from €107 million to €137 million — though that figure came in just shy of the €139 million the market had been looking for.
Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance of around €2.75 billion in revenue, while flagging an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18 to 19 percent before low value-added pass-through business. The order book alone, the company notes, underpins the revenue trajectory through 2028.
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That combination — a record backlog alongside a slightly soft margin — has produced a rare spectacle in the analyst community: genuine disagreement over what the stock is actually worth.
A €32 Chasm Between Bulls and Bears
JPMorgan's David Perry remains cautious, sticking with a Neutral rating and arguing that Hensoldt is the most expensive defence name in his coverage universe, with better upside elsewhere among German peers. At the other end of the spectrum, Warburg Research and Jefferies both retain Buy recommendations, while the DZ Bank reaffirmed its "Buy" stance on Tuesday with an unchanged price target of €90.
The most bearish voice belongs to mwb Research, which holds a Sell rating and a target of just €62 — a full €28 below the current price. The gap between the highest and lowest targets is a striking €32, reflecting a fundamental disagreement about how much of the long-term growth story is already priced in.
Sceptics argue that the market is capitalising a very extended growth scenario that is difficult to justify, even with the record backlog providing visibility. The bulls counter that the demand environment in European defence now exceeds available capacity — a point management made explicitly on the results conference call, citing programmes such as the Puma and Schakal vehicle systems, the Eurofighter's ECRS Mk1 radar, and the Mephisto programme as key drivers.
Fresh Catalysts Keep the Newsflow Positive
The positive momentum has been reinforced by a steady stream of announcements. On Tuesday, Hensoldt disclosed a new series order from the Bundeswehr's procurement agency, BAAINBw, for specialised target-location and identification equipment for "Joint Fire Support Teams." That followed news of a planned "Software-Defined Defence" competence centre in Leinfelden, near Stuttgart, where roughly 300 jobs are expected to be created. The company has signed a cooperation agreement with Bosch to lease space on its campus — a signal that Hensoldt is serious about building out its software capabilities for the defence sector.
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The strategic picture is further bolstered by the NATO summit in Ankara, where member states reaffirmed multi-year defence investment cycles. On the corporate side, the integration of Dutch optronics specialist Nedinsco is expected to deliver positive scale effects in the Optronics segment from the second half of 2026, according to CFO Ladurner. And in a sign of growing institutional interest, US asset manager BlackRock has crossed the 3 percent voting-rights disclosure threshold.
What's Next for the Stock
The shares closed Tuesday at €87.56, up 1.55 percent, and remain 11.62 percent above their 200-day moving average — evidence of a medium-term uptrend that the underlying business continues to support. Year-to-date, the stock is ahead 19.29 percent, though it still sits roughly 24 percent below its 52-week high of €117.70 reached in October 2025.
Investors now have two key dates on the calendar: the third-quarter results on November 5, followed five days later by the capital markets day in London, where management is expected to offer deeper insight into the software strategy and medium-term growth targets. Whether the current rebound has legs will ultimately depend on how the market weighs the record order intake against that stubbornly elusive margin in the weeks ahead.
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