Hensoldt's Record Backlog Meets a Skeptical Analyst — and a Market That Shrugs
Published on 09/17/2026 at 08:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Hensoldt finds itself in an unusual spot: the defence electronics maker is posting some of its strongest operating numbers in years, yet its share price keeps drifting lower, and at least one research house now thinks the stock has further to fall.
On Wednesday the paper closed at EUR 77.12, roughly 34% below the 52-week high of EUR 117.70 it touched last October. The recent pullback has little to do with Hensoldt itself — it stems from profit-taking across the defence sector, driven by stretched valuations and political uncertainty over the future shape of German defence spending.
The order book tells a different story
The operating picture offers scant justification for that gloom. In the first half, order intake doubled to EUR 2,812 million from EUR 1,405 million a year earlier, pushing the backlog past the EUR 10 billion mark for the first time — to EUR 10,356 million. Revenue climbed 23.6% to EUR 1,167 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 28.5% to EUR 137 million.
Management left its full-year guidance untouched: revenue of around EUR 2,750 million, a book-to-bill ratio between 1.5 and 2.0, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19.0%. Back in June the company also lifted its cash flow outlook, saying free cash flow conversion should rise from roughly 40% to about 50% of adjusted EBITDA, helped by higher customer prepayments and faster procurement processes in Germany. The target of net debt at 1.5 times EBITDA was left as is.
Portfolio shifts draw scrutiny
Not everyone reads the backlog the same way. mwb research slapped a "Sell" rating on the stock today with a price target of EUR 62.00, warning of structural risks buried in the order book and headwinds for future revenue growth. The analysts point to a shift in Hensoldt's product mix, a demand rotation in the Ukraine war toward drones, thin recurring revenue in the traditional radar business, and a still-small share of software-defined defence solutions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
That sceptical call lands against a backdrop of continued political tailwinds for the industry. In Washington, defence ministers Boris Pistorius and Pete Hegseth signed a bilateral memorandum of understanding today to deepen armaments cooperation, covering joint development, production, licensed manufacturing and maintenance of major systems such as the F-35 fighter jet and Patriot missiles.
Structural moves and a dividend bump
Hensoldt has been reshaping its footprint as well. In June it completed the acquisition of Dutch optronics specialist Nedinsco once all regulatory approvals were in place, integrating around 140 employees at the Venlo and Eindhoven sites and funding the deal from its own resources. Since September, the Wolfhagen logistics site has been operational as part of the ZEBEL project.
Shareholders gave the company room to reward them at May's annual general meeting, approving a 10% dividend increase for fiscal 2025 to EUR 0.55 per share by a large majority across all agenda items. The payout was made at the end of May.
Insider sale adds to the noise
One transaction that raised eyebrows came in mid-August, when supervisory board chairman Reiner Winkler sold 10,000 shares at EUR 94.71, a total volume of roughly EUR 947,000. Market participants tend to view executive sales critically, though such moves on their own say little about a company's fundamental value.
Fundamentally, Hensoldt still managed to grow in the second quarter of 2026, lifting revenue 22.22% to EUR 671.00 million in the three months to 30 June, up from EUR 549.00 million a year earlier. Earnings per share for the quarter came in at EUR 0.07.
The stock initially brushed off the sell recommendation, trading up 1.5% at EUR 77.82 today, though it remains 34% below its 52-week high of EUR 117.70. While mwb research sets its target well below the current level, the broader market consensus sits noticeably higher. Investors will get fresh insight into the operating trend when Hensoldt reports third-quarter figures.
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