Hensoldt's Three-Way Price Target Spread Leaves the Stock Trailing Every One
Published on 11/15/2026 at 08:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Hensoldt shareholders ended the week with a modest gain and an unusual distinction: the defence group's closing price sits below every price target currently on the table from the major research houses. The stock added 1.1% on Friday to finish at €79.96, a level that leaves clear headroom to even the most cautious of the three published targets, which range from €96 to €105.
The dispersion reflects a week in which brokers pulled in opposite directions. Deutsche Bank Research trimmed its target to €100 from €105 on Wednesday while keeping its "Buy" rating intact. JPMorgan moved the other way, lifting Hensoldt to "Overweight" from "Neutral" and raising its target to €105 from €100. A third house cut its target to €96 from €98 on Tuesday, sticking with a buy recommendation. The net effect is a cluster of bullish ratings paired with targets that have drifted apart rather than converged.
Capital markets day sets the long-range bar
Behind the shifting targets sits a company sketching out a much larger future. At its capital markets day on Tuesday, Hensoldt reaffirmed a €6 billion revenue ambition for 2030 and, for the first time, set its sights on €10 billion in sales by 2035. Management also guided for annual revenue growth of 15% to 20% in both 2027 and 2028.
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The near-term picture was fleshed out the week before, when the group reported nine-month figures and sharpened its guidance. Hensoldt now expects roughly €2.8 billion in revenue for 2026, alongside an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 19.0% — a forecast it confirmed on Tuesday.
Order intake outpaces reported sales
Those nine-month numbers, covering the first three quarters of 2026, show orders running well ahead of revenue. Hensoldt booked €3.56 billion in order intake over the period, against revenue of €1.86 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months came in at €281 million.
The gap between orders and sales underlines the conversion challenge implicit in the company's long-range ambitions: the backlog is building, but turning it into reported revenue at the pace implied by the 2027–2028 growth targets is the test that analysts are effectively pricing when they set their targets. For now, the market's verdict — a Friday close of €79.96 — suggests investors are waiting to see that conversion before bidding the shares up toward the brokers' marks.
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