Institutional Heavyweights Converge on SpaceX as Endowments and Sovereign Funds Bet Big
Published on 08/16/2026 at 11:31 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The world's largest sovereign wealth fund has quietly taken its first-ever position in Elon Musk's space venture, joining a growing roster of blue-chip institutional investors who see long-term value in a stock that has otherwise been whipsawing with 93 percent annualized volatility.
Norges Bank Investment Management, which oversees roughly $2.3 trillion in assets, disclosed a $1.22 billion stake in SpaceX as of June 30 — a 0.05 percent holding that marks the Norwegian fund's debut in the company. The disclosure lands alongside news that Harvard Management Company has made SpaceX its single largest US equity position, with 12.9 million shares valued at $2.2 billion.
That concentration is striking: more than half of Harvard's $4.3 billion US stock portfolio now sits in one name — a company that only went public in June. The endowment's cost basis is almost certainly far below the $135 IPO price, given that the position originated from early venture capital rounds. The University of California reportedly holds a stake worth around $1 billion, with the University of North Carolina and Washington University in St. Louis also invested.
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Nvidia has emerged as a significant holder as well, reporting 122.8 million Class A shares in a regulatory filing — enough to rank as SpaceX's sixth-largest investor. That position traces back to a $10 billion investment in xAI in January, converted into SpaceX equity following the February acquisition of the AI company. At the end of the second quarter, the stake was worth just over $21 billion; after the subsequent pullback, it stood at roughly $17 billion.
Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has also been active, purchasing approximately 3.29 million shares worth about $443 million following the IPO, funded by trimming other growth positions. Ark's internal valuation model sees SpaceX reaching $2.5 trillion in enterprise value by 2030 in its base case, and $3.1 trillion in a bull scenario.
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Not everyone shares that enthusiasm. Morningstar pegs SpaceX's fair value at just $780 billion — barely half of what recent private market valuations have suggested — citing what it calls a "narrow" economic moat and uncertainty in the company's nascent AI business. Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran has reportedly arrived at a similarly more conservative fair value estimate.
Strong Numbers, Heavy Spending
The institutional influx follows a second-quarter earnings report that beat expectations across all three business segments. Revenue came in at $7.8 billion, up 92 percent year over year and comfortably ahead of the $6.9 billion consensus. Adjusted EBITDA surged 191 percent to $3.5 billion.
Starlink, the connectivity engine, has reached 12 million subscribers — double the count from a year earlier — generating $4.3 billion in revenue and $1.66 billion in operating profit. Management issued its first-ever quarterly guidance, projecting connectivity revenue growth of over 50 percent to $4.7 billion in Q3 with a 37.5 percent operating margin.
The bullish outlook, however, comes with a hefty price tag. Capital expenditures of $18.4 billion — including roughly $15.8 billion earmarked for AI infrastructure — briefly rattled investors. A significant chunk flows into "Terafab," a planned chip factory in Texas's Grimes County developed jointly with Tesla. The initial investment stands at $16.8 billion, with plans for at least 3,000 jobs and over 100 million square feet of space. Across multiple construction phases, SpaceX alone could pour up to $119 billion into the project.
Volatility Persists Despite Institutional Backing
The stock's behavior since the insider lockup expired roughly two weeks ago suggests demand remains robust: shares have gained 21.5 percent in that window. Friday's close of €120.96 represented a 1.2 percent daily decline, but the week still finished up 5.1 percent, with a 2.7 percent gain over 30 days. The shares remain 38 percent below their 52-week high of €194.46, set in June.
That extreme price swings are the norm is evident from the 93 percent annualized 30-day volatility figure. South Korea's Mirae Asset Securities saw a valuation gain of roughly 1.6 trillion won drive 64 percent of its second-quarter pre-tax profit — with 11 of 14 analysts surveyed now expecting a valuation loss in the current quarter.
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For long-horizon investors like Harvard and the other endowments, such short-term turbulence is likely of secondary concern. Their positions predate the public listing and reflect a strategic conviction formed years ago. The Norwegian fund's entry, meanwhile, signals a different kind of validation — the world's most conservative institutional capital choosing to back Musk's vision.
The operational tempo continues unabated: a Falcon 9 launched 29 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral on Tuesday, followed hours later by another 24 from Vandenberg — the 72nd and 73rd Starlink missions of the year. Flight 14 of the Starship system is scheduled for August 28, featuring the first attempted catch of the upper stage by the launch tower. The previous test in July delivered mixed results: booster landing went to plan, but only 10 of 13 engines reignited during reentry, with five still running at splashdown. The upper stage did successfully deploy 20 third-generation Starlink satellites in a realistic payload test.
The picture for investors remains a study in contrasts: record operational performance and marquee institutional backing on one side, enormous capital demands and extreme share-price swings on the other. The Norwegian fund's presence adds credibility but does little to smooth the ride.
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