ITM Power's Improved Numbers Meet a Regulatory Caveat and a Cautious Broker
Published on 11/02/2026 at 17:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
ITM Power has given shareholders two things to weigh against each other: a set of full-year figures that show real operational headway, and a pair of warnings — one from its own chief executive about European rules, one from Peel Hunt about how slowly hydrogen projects may move — that keep the progress from being read as a clean recovery story.
The company's preliminary results for fiscal 2026, published on 19 October, put revenue at £43.6 million, up from £26 million a year earlier. The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to £20.2 million from £33 million. Both numbers point the same way, but neither closes the gap to profitability, and that distinction sits at the heart of how the stock should be judged.
A backlog that pays, a P&L that doesn't yet
At the fiscal year-end the contracted order book stood at £144.0 million, of which 83% was described by the company as profitable. Cash on hand was £215.6 million. Those figures sit alongside the £20.2 million adjusted EBITDA loss rather than replacing it — profitability on individual contracts is not the same as a positive group result, and investors need to read order quality and earnings separately.
Guidance for fiscal 2027 calls for revenue of £50 million to £60 million, which would exceed the year just closed, with the adjusted EBITDA loss expected between £17 million and £20 million. Even if that range is hit, the operating result on this basis stays negative. The outlook describes a step-by-step improvement, not an imminent jump into the black. Year-end cash is projected at £170 million to £180 million.
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Brussels draft draws a warning from Schulz
Chief executive Dennis Schulz used the results to flag proposed changes in a leaked draft of the EU's RED IV directive, which he said could put the European electrolyser industry at risk. That is a caution about the possible consequences of a draft, not a deterioration already written into law. Treating it as a concrete hit to ITM Power overreaches; dismissing it as background noise is just as hasty. The two threads — better operations and fresh policy uncertainty — can coexist, and neither a pure turnaround narrative nor a blanket crisis story captures the picture.
Peel Hunt trims its target
On 22 October, Peel Hunt cut its price target to 88 pence from 92 pence, framing fiscal 2027 as a year of execution and order conversion rather than one of demand. The analysts also warned that hydrogen projects could advance more slowly than management and investors expect; Reuters linked the share price decline that session to the broker's move. The central test, then, is not the size of the backlog but whether ITM Power can turn contracts into revenue and narrower losses.
Sheffield sets the next date
The company announced on 27 October that a further shareholder meeting will be held in Sheffield on 13 November 2026, giving investors a fixed date on the calendar. It is separate from the operational reckoning, which will be measured against the company's own fiscal-year targets.
ITM Power at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
A 7.4% share price gain on the day of the results does not settle that question. The direction of travel is right; the regulatory caution and the broker's slower-project scenario cap how much weight the improved figures can carry on their own. Delivering on the guidance — and keeping policy risk in view — is what a more convincing valuation still requires.
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