JPMorgan's $4,500 Target Backs Gold's Comeback as Central Banks Keep Buying
Published on 09/19/2026 at 17:30 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Gold finished the week on a firm footing, with the front-month contract settling at $4,382.82 an ounce on Friday for a gain of 0.9% on the day. The rebound capped a stretch in which the metal has climbed 2.8% since the Federal Reserve's latest policy move, and it has left bullion trading back above its 50-day moving average — a level it had briefly surrendered during a midweek wobble.
The recovery owed much to a retreat in long-dated Treasury yields. The 10-year note, which had pushed past the 5% mark at points during the week, eased back to around 4.93% by Thursday, handing a clear lift to a metal that pays no coupon. Cheaper crude added to the friendlier backdrop: Brent slipped to $104 a barrel as crews in Saudi Arabia worked to restore the east-west pipeline following a Houthi attack.
A Rate Hike That Failed to Bite
Wednesday's decision by the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, initially weighed on prices. The drag proved short-lived. Sliding energy costs pulled bond yields lower and set the stage for a swift countermove, a pattern that looks rather different from earlier tightening cycles, when hawkish signals triggered sustained liquidation. This time, conviction in gold's longer-term drivers appears to have carried more weight than the near-term cost of holding it.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Analysts have taken note. JPMorgan sees the metal at $4,500 by year-end, according to media reports, and other research houses likewise expect the advance to continue and fresh records to fall before the calendar turns. Institutional money has been a steady presence on soft days, with buyers using dips to add exposure — a habit that has lent the market an unusual degree of resilience.
Official-Sector Demand as Ballast
Underpinning those forecasts is the buying done by central banks, which has become a structural feature of the market rather than a passing trend. Ronald-Peter Stöferle of Incrementum points out that monetary authorities purchased 863 tonnes of gold over the past year, diversifying their currency reserves and treating the metal as a hedge against global currency risk. Because official purchases often run counter to the cycle, they tend to cushion corrections — a floor that makes deeper slides less likely.
Quarterly data paint a similar picture. World Gold Council figures put central bank purchases at 288.9 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, up 62.4% from the same period a year earlier. Poland's central bank and the People's Bank of China have ranked among the most active buyers so far this year. Market participants will get their next read on official flows when third-quarter transaction data are published toward the end of October.
For now, the combination of state-sector accumulation and persistent hedging demand continues to validate the bullish case, even with the policy backdrop still tilted against non-yielding assets.
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