JPMorgan's $85 Silver Call Meets a Four-Year Low in Industrial Offtake
Published on 09/21/2026 at 07:10 | Editorial boerse-global.de
JPMorgan has laid out a bullish multi-year case for silver, with the US bank's analysts projecting an average price of $85 an ounce in the years ahead. The foundation of that call is not speculative positioning but genuine industrial consumption: roughly 60% of total silver demand — stripping out inflows into exchange-traded index funds — is tied to industrial applications. That broad economic footprint cushions the metal against cyclical swings and provides a steady baseline of offtake.
The road there has not been smooth. Shifting interest-rate expectations have hit the metal hard at times, yet the longer-term view among the bank's strategists remains constructive.
Futures Hold Above a Key Moving Average
Price action at the end of last week lent some support to that thesis. Silver settled Friday at $66.78 per troy ounce on the futures market, keeping the metal above its 50-day moving average of $64.34. The spot price stabilized at $66.13 an ounce yesterday as traders reassessed the shifting demand signals coming from both industry and investment flows.
Even so, the metal remains a considerable distance below its high for the year. Asian trading opened the new week moving sideways, and the gold-to-silver ratio edged down to 65.8 points from 66.1 the prior session.
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Inventories Tell a Story of Caution
Physical stockpiles paint a picture of restraint among larger participants. At the Shanghai Futures Exchange, inventories fell by 124 kilograms week-on-week, while holdings at the iShares Silver Trust held steady at just over 15,226 tonnes.
The broader warehousing picture is more nuanced. According to media reports, COMEX warehouses last held 338.1 million troy ounces of silver, of which 99.4 million ounces sat in the immediately deliverable category and the larger portion was registered as collateral. Supply-side frictions add another layer: since January, Chinese export rules have restricted the cross-border flow of the metal, tightening global procurement in pockets.
A Demand Mix in Flux
The composition of global silver demand is shifting noticeably. Interest in physical bars and coins is expected to climb 18% this year, but elevated prices are putting the brakes on traditional jewelry consumption. For the full year, that segment is forecast to contract by more than 9% to 178 million troy ounces, with price-sensitive markets such as India showing particular reluctance toward jewelry and silverware.
Industrial demand, meanwhile, is heading for a four-year low at roughly 650 million ounces. In the photovoltaic sector, leaner dosing of the metal and partial substitution with alternative materials are curbing industrial processing volumes.
Against that backdrop, the Silver Institute expects a structural deficit of 67 million ounces for the current year.
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Diplomacy and Geopolitics on the Radar
Beyond the commodities complex, investors are watching a packed diplomatic calendar. Washington hosts a meeting this week between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with trade tariffs and artificial intelligence among the central points of contention. The talks carry a deadline: the agreed truce in the trade conflict expires in November, and a fresh round of tariff hikes could weigh on international goods flows — and with them, industrial demand for metals.
Additional caution stems from the Middle East following reported Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend. Market observers are weighing geopolitical risks against tighter rate conditions as they position for the week ahead.
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