Lenzing Wins a Cautious Endorsement as Deutsche Bank Cuts Its Target to EUR 12.70
Published on 10/29/2026 at 03:01 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Deutsche Bank handed Lenzing a split verdict this week: a sharply lower price target, paired with a kind word for the strategy behind it. Analyst Lars Vom-Cleff trimmed his target to EUR 12.70 from EUR 22.00 while keeping a "Hold" rating, pointing to the completed capital increase as the reason for the reset. The market, for its part, shrugged off the cut — the stock climbed 7.4% in the session, and was up 6.9% at EUR 10.62 at one point.
The distinction matters. Deutsche Bank's endorsement of the fibre maker's strategic reboot is explicitly a medium-term view, and it does not translate into an aggressive call on the equity. Investors weighing a recovery have to separate a plausible plan from the earnings it has yet to produce.
A EUR 301 Million Refill, and a Much Larger Share Count
The rights issue that closed roughly a week ago raised gross proceeds of about EUR 301.2 million, with 34,756,362 new shares placed at EUR 8.65 apiece. A voting-rights notification published afterward put the enlarged share capital at EUR 76,204,702.90, divided into 73,374,542 shares. Oberbank and B&C KB Holding both reported purchases of Lenzing stock in connection with the exercise of subscription rights around the same time.
Ownership remains concentrated. Following registration of the capital increase on 22 October, the syndicate still holds 52.25% of voting rights. A corrected filing also showed Goldman Sachs Group reaching 5.86% of voting rights on Friday, up from 4.01% — a position that includes financial instruments alongside shares and therefore should not be read as outright stock ownership. Nor does it amount to a buy recommendation from the US bank, or any proof that the turnaround is working.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lenzing?
The Margin Is the Real Scorecard
At the heart of the transformation is a targeted EBITDA margin of 20–25%, the clearest yardstick for the company's operating ambition — and, for now, an aspiration rather than an achievement. Lenzing has pencilled in EUR 120 million of additional savings and roughly EUR 150 million in extra EBITDA under the programme, two different slices of the same plan: the intended cost contribution and the expected earnings lift. Neither should be treated as relief already banked.
That is where the scepticism bites. Lenzing has posted net losses since 2022, and a promised EBITDA improvement does not by itself answer the question of a positive bottom line. Equating operating targets with a finished earnings turnaround would be a stretch. The lower valuation multiple could yet outweigh Deutsche Bank's broadly favourable read on the reboot if the earnings effect falls short of the goals.
Heiligenkreuz Slips to Early 2027
On the operational side, Lenzing has pushed back the timetable at its Heiligenkreuz site. Production there is now set to stop at the end of the first quarter of 2027, ORF reported on 22 October, rather than on the earlier schedule. A company spokesperson confirmed the later shutdown and attributed the delay to the planned transfer of production to other sites. Around 285 people work at the facility, so the relocation involves a substantial workforce.
Lenzing at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What would move the needle next is hard evidence — a credible company update on savings achieved or their effect on earnings, as opposed to another restatement of the targets. The bar is implementation: not the size of the announced improvement, but proof that Lenzing is closing the gap to it. Until then, the rally is a snapshot of market reaction, not a verdict on the transformation.
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