Leonardo Lifts Order Target to €29.5 Billion but Leaves Profit Guidance Untouched
Published on 11/08/2026 at 05:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Leonardo has nudged up its order intake forecast for the year while leaving revenue and profitability targets exactly where they were — a combination that has left investors weighing whether the Italian defence group can convert a swelling backlog into earnings.
The company now expects orders of approximately €29.5 billion for the full year, up from roughly €28.2 billion previously. Revenue guidance stays at €22.1 billion and the EBITA target remains €2.21 billion. According to Reuters, traders focused squarely on that limited upgrade in the wake of the nine-month figures, and the shares came under pressure despite robust underlying growth.
Top line races ahead, but the earnings bar is fixed
Over the first nine months of 2026, Leonardo booked revenue of €15.3 billion, an increase of 14.2% year on year. EBITA climbed 37.7% to €1.301 billion, while adjusted net profit jumped 74.2% to €812 million. Orders rose 27.8% to €23.3 billion.
That divergence between top-line expansion and a static full-year profit target sets a clear benchmark: the enlarged order book only bolsters the investment case if Leonardo simultaneously scales up deliveries and locks in the earnings contribution. Fresh contract announcements matter less than the economics of turning them into revenue.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Leonardo?
The backlog stood at €60.4 billion at the end of the nine-month period, though that figure includes roughly €6 billion stemming from the consolidation of Iveco Defence Vehicles. Any assessment of the growth trajectory has to strip out that acquired volume. Net debt across the group was €3.3 billion, adding a leverage dimension to the growth-versus-risk calculation.
Aerostructures drag eases as talks continue
On a more encouraging note, losses in the aerostructures division are shrinking, according to a Reuters report on Thursday. Chief financial officer Giuseppe Aurilio said discussions over a possible joint venture for the unit are ongoing, with an update on the standalone plan for the business expected in March.
A favourable outcome would pair disciplined order execution with a lighter drag from aerostructures. Should that relief persist while Leonardo hits its earnings targets, the operational improvement would gain a second tailwind. The progress still needs to show through in the reported numbers.
Separately, Leonardo and Fincantieri signed a letter of intent on Tuesday to strengthen the industrial and commercial role of their Orizzonte Sistemi Navali joint venture, aiming to develop opportunities in both domestic and international markets. The agreement's value to shareholders rests on whether concrete business follows.
Leonardo at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Rheinmetall's guidance cut spills over
External factors added to the selling pressure. Reuters noted that a guidance cut from Rheinmetall weighed on European defence stocks on Thursday. Leonardo shares shed a further 1.2% on Friday, extending the negative reaction to the results into a second trading session.
The group's financial calendar sets 3 March 2027 for the 2026 annual results and approval of the industrial plan, subject to board consent. First-quarter figures are due on 4 May. Investors will be watching how delivery capacity, earnings targets and the aerostructures strategy fit together — more business, profitable execution and a workable solution for the loss-making unit.
Ad
Leonardo Stock: New Analysis - 8 November
Fresh Leonardo information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
