Lufthansa's Fuel Bill Forces Guidance Trim, but Upgraded Brokers See Relief Ahead
Published on 11/08/2026 at 19:11 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Lufthansa has narrowed its full-year 2026 profit outlook to an adjusted EBIT of between 1.7 billion and 2.0 billion euros, with Europe's largest airline group pointing squarely at a heavier kerosene bill as the reason. The carrier expects to spend 9.3 billion euros on fuel across the year.
The guidance cut, announced on Tuesday alongside third-quarter results, came even though the July-to-September period was strong on its own terms. Revenue climbed 9% year on year to 12.2 billion euros, while adjusted EBIT rose 6% to 1.41 billion euros — a figure that media reports said beat analyst expectations, helped by resilient demand and tight cost control.
Fuel costs, however, ran 543 million euros above the prior-year level in the quarter. Management said strong demand and cost discipline more than offset that increase, but the drag proved too much to absorb at the full-year level.
The picture darkens when the first nine months are taken together. For January through September 2026, Lufthansa reported adjusted EBIT of 1.18 billion euros — a 20% decline from the same stretch a year earlier, despite the stronger third quarter.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Lufthansa?
Two Brokers, Two Verdicts
Friday brought a wave of analyst revisions, and the market responded: the shares gained 3.9% on the day. Media coverage linked the advance to the upgraded calls as well as to lower oil and kerosene prices.
Barclays lifted its rating from "Underweight" to "Equal Weight" and raised its price target to 8.40 euros from 7.50 euros. Analyst Andrew Lobbenberg, according to dpa-AFX, tied the move to falling fuel costs following the US midterm elections, which he suggested could also support more robust demand.
Bernstein took a different route, keeping its "Market Perform" rating while nudging its target to 9.50 euros from 9.00 euros. Goldman Sachs also raised its target on Friday, to 7.50 euros from 7.10 euros, yet stuck with a sell recommendation — a reminder that higher targets and positive ratings do not always travel together.
Lufthansa at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
TAP Stake Funded From Cash
Separately, Lufthansa will finance its planned entry into TAP Air Portugal from available liquidity. The signed agreement covers an initial 44.9% stake for 1.02 billion euros. Completion remains subject to regulatory approvals, most notably from the European Commission.
Kerosene prices look set to stay the swing factor in the group's earnings story. Tuesday's numbers showed what a 543-million-euro quarterly fuel increase can do to a profit line; Friday's broker notes bet that the pressure is about to ease.
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