Mercedes-Benz Keeps Buying Back Stock While Analysts Trim Targets and China Strategy Awaits a Rewrite
Published on 11/02/2026 at 14:31 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Mercedes-Benz is pressing ahead with its share buyback even after cutting its profit outlook, according to a fresh interim disclosure. The company repurchased 904,601 of its own shares last week, lifting the total since the programme began to 7,391,990. The filing confirms the buyback has continued uninterrupted since the profit warning issued just over a week ago.
The programme, announced on 31 August, covers up to 58 million shares and a volume of up to EUR 1 billion. It runs from 1 September through 6 April 2027, and the latest disclosure captures purchases completed by last Friday — a closed window inside a much longer schedule. That distinction matters: the reported figures show execution to date, while the announced caps define the ceiling. Nothing in the interim update points to a larger buyback or a faster pace.
A weaker cash picture sits alongside the purchases
The buybacks land against a deteriorating business outlook. In its profit warning, Mercedes-Benz cut the expected adjusted return on sales for Mercedes-Benz Cars for 2026 to 2–3%, down from a prior forecast of 3–5%. Management cited a tougher market environment in China and higher costs in the fourth quarter, including material costs.
Free cash flow from the industrial business is now expected well below the prior-year level, a downgrade from the earlier guidance of slightly below. Group EBIT is projected to merely match last year, having previously been expected to rise significantly. The buyback does nothing to ease these operating pressures and should be judged separately from the trajectory of the business.
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Third-quarter figures cut both ways
The numbers published on Wednesday give ammunition to bulls and bears alike. Revenue in the third quarter of 2026 came in at EUR 30.7 billion, down from EUR 32.1 billion a year earlier. Group EBIT, by contrast, climbed to EUR 1.77 billion from EUR 0.75 billion, and net profit rose to EUR 1.52 billion from EUR 1.19 billion.
Volume and profit are therefore moving in opposite directions — a split that argues for looking at the two separately rather than reading the headline gain as a clean recovery. Nor do the stronger quarterly figures erase the burdens management has flagged for the rest of the year, which is why the annual EBIT guidance now points only to the prior-year level instead of a marked increase.
Price target cuts, but no consensus verdict
Analysts revised their expectations on Thursday, though their conclusions remain far apart. Deutsche Bank Research lowered its price target to EUR 65 from EUR 70 while keeping its buy rating — a reminder that a target cut does not automatically signal a negative call. Oddo BHF cut its target to EUR 32 from EUR 36 on the same day and stuck with its view that the stock will underperform. Other houses also trimmed their targets but retained neutral ratings. The common thread is caution; a single verdict on the shares is nowhere to be found.
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China stays central, with answers due in 2027
China remains the strategic test case. Reuters reported on Wednesday that Mercedes-Benz intends to overhaul its China strategy and present concrete results in early 2027. Chief executive Ola Källenius said the company is preparing a broader strategy update covering 2030 and beyond, with China set to remain a central pillar. Separately, Mercedes-Benz announced on Wednesday that from December 2026 it will again offer a voluntary severance programme for indirect functions in Germany.
For investors, a visible earnings improvement now sits alongside strategic answers that have yet to arrive. The wide spread of analyst recommendations captures precisely that tension: the better quarter is on the record, while the durability of any further recovery is the open question.
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