Mercedes-Benz Price Targets Diverge Sharply as Analysts Rethink the Stock
Published on 11/01/2026 at 14:21 | Editorial boerse-global.de
Analysts covering Mercedes-Benz spent the back half of the week trimming their valuations of the carmaker, yet the verdicts they attached to those cuts point in markedly different directions. Deutsche Bank Research and UBS both lowered their price targets on Thursday, but one kept a buy recommendation while the other stayed on the sidelines. The DZ Bank followed a day later with a cut of its own, and the spread of opinions now on display is unusually wide.
A range of targets, a range of ratings
Deutsche Bank Research took its target down from 70 to 65 euros on Thursday while reaffirming its buy call, so the lower figure did not come with a move to a more cautious rating category. UBS, by contrast, cut its target from 45.00 to 42.50 euros and left its rating at "Neutral." The two actions therefore send no unified signal about entry points: both houses marked their valuations down, but they remain divided on whether the shares are worth owning.
Across the Thursday updates, new targets spanned 32 to 65 euros, and the accompanying ratings ran the full spectrum from negative through neutral to positive. The DZ Bank's Friday move added another data point. It lowered its fair value from 55 to 48 euros while confirming its "Kaufen" rating, with the analyst pointing to persistent weakness in China and the reduced guidance, according to media reports.
For investors, the distinction matters. A trimmed target is not the same thing as a sell recommendation, and a reiterated buy does not erase the downward revision to the valuation. The DZ Bank's stance illustrates the split neatly: lower expectations, but no downgrade.
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Guidance cut and the quarter behind it
The backdrop is a softer China business and higher costs. On Tuesday, Mercedes-Benz lowered its full-year expectations, projecting an adjusted return on sales of 2–3% for Mercedes-Benz Cars, down from 3–5%. Group EBIT is now expected to land at the prior-year level, where the company had previously forecast a significant increase. It also expects a substantial decline in industrial free cash flow compared with last year.
Wednesday's third-quarter 2026 release filled in the picture. Group revenue came in at 30.7 billion euros, with adjusted group EBIT of 1.78 billion euros — a decline of 15% year on year. Mercedes-Benz Cars posted an adjusted return on sales of 2.5%, and industrial free cash flow reached 172 million euros. The company attributed the softer outlook to the tougher market environment in China and higher costs in the closing quarter.
Buyouts, a strategy refresh and a 2027 warning
Attention now shifts to the measures management has announced. According to Reuters, Mercedes-Benz will relaunch its voluntary severance program for indirect functions in Germany starting in December; the company did not specify how many jobs it aims to cut. Chief executive Ola Källenius also used Wednesday to flag a broader strategy update for next year, one that will set the direction through 2030 and beyond, with China remaining a central pillar.
Mercedes-Benz at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Not everyone is convinced the road ahead is smooth. Jefferies reiterated its buy rating and 46-euro target on Wednesday, but analyst Philippe Houchois flagged risks to market expectations for the car division's 2027 margin. Short-term cost measures and a long-range strategic review now sit side by side — and the gulf between the analyst ratings suggests little agreement on how either should be valued.
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