Nebius Delivers Blowout Q2, Yet the Stock's Wild Ride Reflects a Deeper Tug-of-War
Published on 08/13/2026 at 19:42 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The arithmetic of artificial intelligence infrastructure is brutal: massive capital outlays, razor-thin timelines, and a market that swings violently on every data point. Nebius's second-quarter report, released this week, captures that tension perfectly — record growth on one side, a punishing build-out schedule on the other.
Revenue for the quarter hit $582.3 million, a 454 percent surge year over year and comfortably ahead of the LSEG consensus of $572.75 million. The AI cloud segment, the company's crown jewel, expanded 514 percent annually to $574.9 million, now accounting for 98 percent of total turnover. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $236.2 million with a 41 percent margin, reversing a $21.0 million loss in the same period last year.
The bottom line told a similar story. The adjusted net loss of $33.2 million, or $0.12 per share, came in dramatically better than the analyst range of $0.67 to $0.72 per share in red ink. One analyst following the stock described the print as less a quarterly beat and more a re-rating of the entire business model.
Four Billion-Dollar Contracts and a Raised Power Target
What lends credibility to the growth narrative is the breadth of demand behind it. Nebius signed four AI cloud contracts during the quarter, each averaging over $1 billion in value, including a multi-year agreement with Reflection AI extending through 2029. That deal, announced in mid-July, gives the US startup access to Nebius's compute capacity powered by Nvidia's GB300 chips and carries a stated value of $1 billion.
The company also lifted its contracted power capacity target for 2026 from over 4 gigawatts to 5 gigawatts — a signal that planned infrastructure is backed by contractual commitments rather than speculative demand. Full-year guidance was reaffirmed: group revenue between $3.0 billion and $3.4 billion, an EBITDA margin around 40 percent, and capital expenditures ranging from $20 billion to $25 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
The Financing Calculus Behind the Growth
That capex figure deserves a second look. Growth of this magnitude does not come cheap, and Nebius's balance sheet reflects the hunger. Through the end of June, the company had sold 12.7 million Class A shares via its at-the-market program at a weighted average price of $223.60, raising roughly $2.8 billion in gross proceeds. It is not an alarm bell, but it underscores that operations alone cannot fund an investment cycle of this scale.
Institutional investors appear undeterred. Goldman Sachs disclosed a 7.2 percent stake in the Class A shares, while BlackRock boosted its holdings to 11,531,270 shares as of June 30, a 16.04 percent increase quarter over quarter. Nvidia, the chip giant that invested $2 billion in March, now holds a 9.3 percent position per a July regulatory filing — though it cannot sell the underlying shares until September 11.
On the other side of the trade sit prominent skeptics. Michael Burry of Scion Asset Management reportedly holds short positions against both Nebius and Oracle, arguing that both companies systematically underestimate the depreciation rate of their AI GPUs. It is a thesis that resonates with the stock's extreme volatility: the annualized 30-day volatility stands at 177 percent, and late July saw the shares fall roughly 32 percent in six days before recovering into earnings season.
Vineland Lingers as a Construction Concern
Not every analyst is fully on board. DA Davidson trimmed its price target on Monday from $250 to $175, maintaining a Neutral rating, citing delays at the Vineland facility in New Jersey. The analysts checked progress on the ground — including a site visit and attendance at a city council hearing — and warned that local resistance over noise and electricity costs could push completion beyond this year, potentially denting the upside of the current guidance and challenging the narrative that Nebius is the best-positioned player among the so-called neoclouds.
For context, Citizens Capital Markets raised its target from $175 to $270 back in mid-May, though that call now sits nearly three months old and predates the latest quarterly numbers.
A Stock That Rewards Fortitude
The market's reaction to the earnings has been characteristically erratic. The stock traded at €238.50 on the day after the release, up 6.2 percent, before slipping to €219.35 in subsequent sessions, a 2.3 percent decline. That pullback leaves the shares 16 percent below the 52-week high of €261.00 — though it looks modest against a seven-day rally of 33 percent and a 198 percent gain over the past year.
Nebius at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Momentum metrics tell a similar tale of a recovery well underway but not exhausted. The stock now trades 23 percent above its 50-day moving average and 89 percent above its 200-day average, with the gap to the 52-week high at 8.6 percent.
Management has also moved to shore up the commercial side, hiring Lindsey Irvine as chief marketing officer in early August. She joins from Square, with prior stints at Benchling and MuleSoft, where she grew recurring revenue from $250 million to over $1 billion during her tenure.
Investors now look toward the annual general meeting scheduled for August 25. With volatility at current levels, the shares will likely remain a white-knuckle ride. But the underlying story — contracted demand, a tripled margin, and reaffirmed guidance — suggests the operational substance is winning out over the noise, even if the path there is anything but smooth.
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